{"id":20598,"date":"2026-02-07T02:42:06","date_gmt":"2026-02-07T02:42:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/xpos-january-tonnage-bucks-negative-trend\/"},"modified":"2026-02-07T02:42:06","modified_gmt":"2026-02-07T02:42:06","slug":"xpos-january-tonnage-bucks-negative-trend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/xpos-january-tonnage-bucks-negative-trend\/","title":{"rendered":"XPO\u2019s January tonnage bucks negative trend"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div xmlns:default=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" data-testid=\"article-body\">\n<div class=\"bodyItems-wrapper\">\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->XPO reported a January tonnage surprise on Thursday, sending shares more than 11% higher in early trading. A modest uptick in demand from the less-than-truckload carrier\u2019s manufacturing customers combined with in-house growth initiatives resulted in no change to tonnage during the month. That ended an 18-month stretch of year-over-year declines.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Manufacturing data released on Monday showed industrial activity turned positive for the first time in 12 months. The Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index registered a 52.6 reading in January, 470 basis points higher than December. (A reading above 50 signals expansion while one below 50 indicates contraction.) The dataset has been underwater for the majority of the past three years.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The new orders subindex\u2014an indicator of future activity\u2014surged 970 bps to 57.1 (the highest reading since February 2022).<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->XPO (NYSE: XPO)\u00a0also has idiosyncratic growth programs in place.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Last year, it added 10,000 local accounts (small and midsize shippers), which typically have better yield and margin profiles. This group accounts for 25% of the company\u2019s LTL revenue book (up from 20%), but the plan is to grow this segment to more than 30% of revenue over time.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->XPO is also expanding its grocery consolidation offering, and it has recently added new customers from the healthcare sector.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Shipments that incur accessorial charges (\u201cpremium services\u201d) have increased to 12% of revenue, up from less than 10% previously.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->New account wins and service enhancements are allowing the carrier to close its pricing gap to best-in-class peers. XPO\u2019s fourth quarter marked 12 consecutive quarters of sequential improvement in revenue per shipment. The changes are driving margins and earnings higher.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->\u201cBy pairing world-class service with our proprietary technology, we\u2019re building durable earnings power unique to our business,\u201d said Mario Harik, chairman and CEO, in a news release. \u201cWe\u2019re continuing to execute for market-leading margin expansion in the current environment, while positioning for outsized share and margin gains in a recovery.\u201d<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<figure data-testid=\"article-figure-image\" class=\"yf-1ems0tc\">\n<div class=\"image-container yf-lglytj\" style=\"--max-height: 749px;\">\n<div class=\"image-wrapper yf-lglytj\" style=\"--aspect-ratio: 925 \/ 749; --img-max-width: 925px;\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/ny\/api\/res\/1.2\/C7A2Jx9Dh1LNOzV6U5k2gQ--\/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTc3Nw--\/https:\/\/media.zenfs.com\/en\/freightwaves_373\/7af8ee62f09ea990ba03d0e0c8207a39\" alt=\"Table: XPO\u2019s key performance indicators\" loading=\"eager\" height=\"749\" width=\"925\" class=\"yf-lglytj  loaded\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"yf-1ems0tc\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Table: XPO\u2019s key performance indicators<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->XPO\u2019s fourth-quarter adjusted earnings came in 18% higher y\/y, excluding one-off items and real estate gains.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The Greenwich, Connecticut-based company reported adjusted earnings per share of 88 cents (inclusive of gains). That was 12 cents ahead of the consensus estimate. The adjusted EPS number excluded transaction and restructuring costs but included 8 cents per share in gains from the sale of real estate. XPO recorded 21 cents per share in real estate gains in the 2024 fourth quarter.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>   <button class=\"secondary-btn fin-size-large readmore-button    rounded   yf-r7dg9i\" data-ylk=\"elm:readmore;itc:1;sec:content-canvas;slk:Story%20continues\" aria-label=\"Story continues\" title=\"Story continues\"> <span>Story continues<\/span> <\/button> <\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more-wrapper\" style=\"display: none\" data-testid=\"read-more\">\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Consolidated revenue of $2.01 billion was 5% higher y\/y and better than the $1.95 billion consensus estimate.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The LTL unit reported revenue of $1.17 billion, a 1% y\/y increase (2% higher on a per-day comparison). Tonnage per day declined 4.5% y\/y but revenue per hundredweight (yield) was 6% higher (5% higher excluding fuel surcharges).<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The tonnage decline resulted from a 1.5% decline in daily shipments and a 3% drop in weight per shipment. Tonnage was down 3.8% y\/y in October, down 5.4% in November and down 4.5% in December.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->January tonnage was flat y\/y, in part due to an easier prior-year comp (negative-8.5%). However, management said tonnage would have been 3% higher during the month without the severe winter storms. October could mark the nadir for tonnage on a two-year-stacked comparison (down 11.8%).<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The fourth-quarter yield metric benefitted from the decline in average shipment weight and a 1% increase in length of haul. Fourth-quarter yield was 11.4% higher on a two-year-stacked comparison.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<figure data-testid=\"article-figure-image\" class=\"yf-1ems0tc\">\n<div class=\"image-container yf-lglytj loader\" style=\"--max-height: 330px;\">\n<div class=\"image-wrapper yf-lglytj\" style=\"--aspect-ratio: 960 \/ 330; --img-max-width: 960px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" alt=\"&lt;em&gt;SONAR: Longhaul LTL Monthly Cost per Hundredweight, Class 125+ Index. Less-than-truckload monthly indices are based on the median cost per hundredweight for four National Motor Freight Classification groupings and five different mileage bands&lt;\/em&gt;. &lt;em&gt;To learn more about SONAR, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/gosonar.com\/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noopener&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; data-ylk=&quot;slk:click here;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas&quot; class=&quot;link &quot;&gt;click here&lt;\/a&gt;.&lt;\/em&gt;\" loading=\"lazy\" height=\"330\" width=\"960\" class=\"yf-lglytj loader\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"yf-1ems0tc\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><em>SONAR: Longhaul LTL Monthly Cost per Hundredweight, Class 125+ Index. Less-than-truckload monthly indices are based on the median cost per hundredweight for four National Motor Freight Classification groupings and five different mileage bands<\/em>. <em>To learn more about SONAR, click here.<\/em><!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The unit reported an 84.4% adjusted operating ratio (inverse of operating margin), 180 bps better y\/y, but 170 bps worse than the third quarter. The result was better than historical sequential deterioration of 200 to 250 bps, and near management\u2019s 84% implied guide.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Salaries, wages and benefits (as a percentage of revenue) came in 100 bps lower y\/y. Purchased transportation expense was 180 bps lower as outsourced miles have been reduced to just 5.1% of total miles.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Revenue per shipment outpaced adjusted cost per shipment by 220 bps in the quarter.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The company is calling for further margin improvement even if the broader economy doesn\u2019t improve. It has implemented several AI-led efficiency initiatives (dock, linehaul and pickup-and-delivery), and maintenance costs are lower as the average tractor age has been reduced to 3.7 years.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The cost reductions combined with pricing levers are expected to produce 100 to 150 bps of y\/y margin improvement in 2026. Cost per shipment is expected to increase by a low-single-digit percentage this year as general cost inflation is partially mitigated by productivity initiatives. Revenue per shipment should be up by a mid-single-digit percentage.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->XPO sees a path to low-70s ORs over time. It has recorded 590 bps of margin improvement through the downturn.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The carrier is forecasting sequential OR improvement in the first quarter even though it typically experiences 50 bps of deterioration. Even if OR came in flat with the fourth quarter that would be 150 bps better y\/y.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->XPO\u2019s European transportation segment reported an 11% y\/y increase in revenue to $846 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $32 million was 19% higher y\/y.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Shares of XPO were up 4.3% at 2:00 p.m. EST on Thursday compared to the S&amp;P 500, which was down 1.1%. The stock is up more than 25% this week as PMI data and LTL earnings reports have surprised to the upside.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden:<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The post XPO\u2019s January tonnage bucks negative trend appeared first on FreightWaves.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>XPO reported a January tonnage surprise on Thursday, sending shares more than 11% higher in early trading. A modest uptick in demand from the less-than-truckload carrier\u2019s manufacturing customers combined with in-house growth initiatives resulted in no change to tonnage during the month. That ended an 18-month stretch of year-over-year declines. Manufacturing data released on Monday [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20599,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_daextam_enable_autolinks":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[10],"tags":[225,2454],"class_list":["post-20598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-news","tag-fourth-quarter","tag-tonnage"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/1abd441e5c2f4ff7acdc3703d0d6f656.jpeg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20598\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20599"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}