Volumes were down but freight rates continued to move higher in January, according to monthly data from Cass Information Systems.<\/p>\n
Cass\u2019 (NASDAQ: CASS) multimodal shipments index declined 7.1% year over year (down 14.7% on a two-year comparison) to a reading not seen since 2009\u2014the tail end of the Global Financial Crisis. Shipments were down 2% from December on a seasonally adjusted comp.<\/p>\n
Severe winter weather and retailers holding less inventory to start the year weighed on shipment counts in the month. Some less-than-truckload carriers recently said the adverse weather negatively impacted shipments by about three percentage points. Earlier this month, the Logistics Managers\u2019 Index showed inventory restocking occurred at a rate that was the \u201csecond-lowest for any January\u201d as inventory holding costs remain high.<\/p>\n
The Cass report said normal seasonal trends would place the shipments index 11% lower y\/y in February, \u201calthough a rebound from the weather could support volumes above this.\u201d<\/p>\n
January 2026<\/strong> Cass\u2019 expenditures index, which measures total freight spend including fuel, increased 0.6% y\/y and 0.4% seasonally adjusted from December (down 3.6% sequentially without the adjustment). A two-year-stacked decline of 3.6% was the smallest since July 2023.<\/p>\n Netting the change in volumes from the change in expenditures implies rates were likely up 8% y\/y in January. Changes in mix, however, can also alter the data. (Cass no longer publishes an inferred rate index.)<\/p>\n The TL linehaul index, which tracks rates excluding fuel and accessorial surcharges, increased 1.7% from December and came in 3.2% higher y\/y. The index has been up sequentially for five consecutive months. January marked 13 straight months of y\/y increases after 24 months of declines. The two-year-stacked reading was 4% higher.<\/p>\n The report pointed to poor weather as a catalyst for rates in the month, noting better weather could \u201clead to some trend reversion, but for February at least, spot rates are likely to accelerate.\u201d<\/p>\n The TL linehaul index reflects for-hire spot and contract rates, but is \u201cmostly comprised of contract rates.\u201d The report acknowledged a changing market: \u201canecdotally we hear about more shippers initiating one-year bids, suggesting movement in the cycle beyond just weather effects.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cFleets are getting excited that the long-awaited recovery is here,\u201d the report said. \u201cEven 2% contract rate increases are a relief after four years of nothing or worse. While near-term reversion from the weather may slow the trend, we expect tighter capacity to lead to moderate truckload rate increases in 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n During the fourth-quarter earnings season, TL carriers signaled an expectation for low- to mid-single-digit contractual rate increases this year. The low end represents expectations for index-based dedicated contracts, while the upper end reflects expected changes to one-way contracts.<\/p>\n Some analysts have indicated that the initial guidance from carriers may prove conservative given increased regulation of the driver pool (English-language proficiency requirements, non-domiciled CDL restrictions, and ELD and driver school crackdowns). Also, much larger rate increases are required, after years of cost inflation and depressed rates, for the group to restore margins.<\/p>\n Data used in the indexes comes from freight bills paid by Cass, a provider of payment management solutions. Cass processes $37 billion in freight payables annually on behalf of customers.<\/p>\n More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden:<\/p>\n The post TL rates up again without help from volume appeared first on FreightWaves.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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