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The\u00a0S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY)\u00a0today is up +0.03%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI)\u00a0(DIA) is down -0.11%, and the\u00a0Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.63%.\u00a0 March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.07%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.53%.<\/p>\n
Stock indexes are moving higher today after a report that Iran made indirect contact with the US to negotiate an end to the war, boosting hopes that the conflict could end sooner than expected.\u00a0 The NY Times reported that operatives from Iran\u2019s Ministry of Intelligence used backchannels to contact the CIA a day after US-Israeli attacks began.\u00a0 Stocks added to their gains on signs of a resilient US labor market after the Feb ADP employment report showed employers added more jobs than expected.<\/p>\n
Stock gains are limited amid heightened global trade tensions after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said proposed 15% tariffs on goods imported into the US may take effect this week.<\/p>\n
Crude oil prices fell from sharp overnight gains and are down more than -1% on the NY Times report that said Iranian operatives made an offer to the US to discuss terms for ending the conflict.\u00a0 Crude oil prices were also undercut by carryover from Tuesday, when President Trump said the US will ensure the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz with insurance guarantees and even naval escorts.<\/p>\n
However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed after Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that \u201cwe will set fire to any ship attempting to pass through\u201d the strait, which runs along Iran’s coast and handles a fifth of the world’s oil.\u00a0 The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, to shut down oil production at its largest oil fields in Rumalia as storage tanks fill up. \u00a0Also, Kayrros reported today that four of six tanks at Saudi Arabia\u2019s Ras Tanura refinery were full, and the Ju\u2019aymah terminal on the country\u2019s east coast is quickly running out of spare capacity.\u00a0 Goldman Sachs estimates the real-time risk premium for crude oil at $18\/bbl, corresponding to its estimate of the impact of a six-week full halt to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
In addition, falling debris from an intercepted Iranian drone caused a major fire at the United Arab Emirates’ major oil-trading hub, Fujairah, one of the largest oil storage centers in the Middle East.\u00a0 European natural gas prices surged to a 3-year high on Tuesday after Qatar shut its Ras Laffan plant, the world’s largest natural gas export facility, after it was targeted by an Iranian drone attack.\u00a0 The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of the global liquefied natural gas supply.<\/p>\n
US MBA mortgage applications rose by +11% in the week ended February 27, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +6.1% and the refinance mortgage sub-index up +14.3%.\u00a0 The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was unchanged from the prior week at 6.09%.<\/p>\n
US Feb ADP employment increased by +63,000, stronger than expectations of +50,000.<\/p>\n
Comments today from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were hawkish, with Hammack saying it’s important to drive inflation back to target and that “Fed policy could be on hold for quite some time.”<\/p>\n
This week’s market focus will be on US-Iran war news, corporate earnings, and economic news.\u00a0 Later today, the Feb ISM services index is expected to slip by -0.3 to 53.5.\u00a0 Also, the Fed releases its Beige Book.\u00a0 On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +3,000 to 215,000.\u00a0 Also, Q4 nonfarm productivity is expected to be up +1.8%, and Q4 unit labor costs are expected to be up +2.0%.\u00a0 On Friday, Feb nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +60,000, and the Feb unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.\u00a0Also, Feb average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.3% m\/m and +3.7% y\/y.\u00a0 In addition, Feb retail sales are expected to fall -0.3% m\/m and Feb retail sales ex-autos are expected to remain unchanged m\/m.<\/p>\n
Q4 earnings season is nearing its end, with more than 90% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.\u00a0 Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 73% of the 481 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.\u00a0 According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.\u00a0 Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.<\/p>\n
The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.<\/p>\n
Overseas stock markets are mixed today.\u00a0 The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.67%. \u00a0China\u2019s Shanghai Composite fell to a 3.5-week low and closed down -0.98%. \u00a0Japan\u2019s Nikkei Stock 225 dropped to a 3.5-week low and closed down -3.61%.<\/p>\n
Interest Rates<\/strong><\/p>\n June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -4 ticks.\u00a0 The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.8 bp to 4.067%. \u00a0Today\u2019s recovery in stocks has reduced safe-haven demand for government debt and is weighing on T-notes.\u00a0 Also, today\u2019s stronger-than-expected Feb ADP employment report was bearish for T-notes.\u00a0In addition, hawkish comments today from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack are undercutting T-notes when she said, “Fed policy could be on hold for quite some time.”\u00a0 Losses in T-notes are limited after crude oil prices gave up an overnight advance and turned lower, dampening inflation expectations.<\/p>\n European government bond yields are moving lower today.\u00a0 The 10-year German bund yield is down -0.3 bp to 2.749%.\u00a0 The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -4.0 bp to 4.431%.<\/p>\n Eurozone Jan PPI rose +0.7% m\/m and fell -2.1% y\/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m\/m and -2.6% y\/y.<\/p>\n The Eurozone Jan unemployment rate fell -0.2 to a record low of 6.1%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 6.2%.<\/p>\n Swaps are discounting a 0% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.<\/p>\n US Stock Movers<\/strong><\/p>\n Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are moving higher today, supporting gains in the broader market. \u00a0Seagate Technology Holdings Plc\u00a0(STX) is up more than +3%,\u00a0and Micron Technology\u00a0(MU),\u00a0Western Digital\u00a0(WDC), ARM Holdings Plc\u00a0(ARM), and\u00a0Lam Research\u00a0(LRCX) are up more than +2%.\u00a0Also, Applied Materials\u00a0(AMAT), KLA Corp\u00a0(KLAC),\u00a0Marvell Technology\u00a0(MRVL), and\u00a0Analog Devices\u00a0(ADI) are up more than +1%.\u00a0 <\/p>\n Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are rallying today with Bitcoin\u00a0(^BTCUSD) up more than +5% at a 3-week high.\u00a0 Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +9% to lead gainers in the SP 500, and\u00a0Galaxy Digital Holdings\u00a0(GLXY) is up more than +8%.\u00a0 Also,\u00a0Strategy\u00a0(MSTR) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and MARA Holdings (MARA) is up more than +4%.\u00a0In addition, Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +3%.<\/p>\n Energy producers and energy service providers are under pressure today, with WTI crude oil down by more than 1%.\u00a0 APA Corp\u00a0(APA) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the S&P 500,\u00a0and ConocoPhillips\u00a0(COP),\u00a0Halliburton\u00a0(HAL), Devon Energy\u00a0(DVN), and Exxon Mobil\u00a0(XOM) are down more than -2%.\u00a0 Also, Diamondback Energy\u00a0(FANG), Chevron\u00a0(CVX), and Occidental Petroleum\u00a0(OXY)\u00a0are down more than -1%.<\/p>\n Ross Stores\u00a0(ROST) is up more than +7% after reporting Q4 sales of $6.64 billion, better than the consensus of $6.40 billion.<\/p>\n nLight Inc.\u00a0(LASR) is up more than +7% after Baird initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $95.<\/p>\n Moderna\u00a0(MRNA) is up more than +6% after it agreed to pay Genevant $950 million to settle litigation related to the delivery technology behind its Covid shot, a deal some analysts said was better than feared.<\/p>\n Brown-Forman\u00a0(BF.B)\u00a0is up more than +4% after reporting Q3 net sales of $1.06 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.00 billion.<\/p>\n Target\u00a0(TGT) is up more than +3% after Telsey Advisory Group upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform with a price target of $145.<\/p>\n Alcoa\u00a0(AA) is up more than +3% after S&P Global Ratings upgraded the company\u2019s long-term credit rating to BB+ from BB with a stable outlook.<\/p>\n Dow Inc.\u00a0(DOW) is up more than +1% after KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded the stock to overweight from sector weight with a price target of $38.<\/p>\n Gitlab\u00a0(GTLB) is down\u00a0more than -7% after forecasting 2027 revenue of $1.10 billion to $1.12 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $1.12 billion.<\/p>\n Webtoon Entertainment\u00a0(WBTN) is down more than -5% after reporting Q4 EPS loss of -$2.36, a much wider loss than the consensus of -12 cents.<\/p>\n Abercrombie & Fitch\u00a0(ANF)\u00a0is down more than -5% after forecasting Q1 net sales to grow +1% to +3%, below the consensus of +4.5%.<\/p>\n Frontline Plc\u00a0(FRO) is down more than -3% after Arctic Securities ASA downgraded the stock to hold from buy.<\/p>\n Earnings Reports(3\/4\/2026)<\/strong><\/p>\n Bath & Body Works Inc (BBWI), Broadcom Inc (AVGO), Brown-Forman Corp (BF\/B), Okta Inc (OKTA), Veeva Systems Inc (VEEV).<\/p>\n On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally\u00a0published on Barchart.com <\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n