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Markets tend to freak out first and ask questions later when international tensions flare \u2014 but history also says that panic often fades in days or weeks (sometimes months). The exception is the ugly one: a prolonged, boots-on-the-ground conflict.<\/p>\n
With recent market history already skittish, the cleanest risk-off tells right now are three levels in three different markets.<\/p>\n
If WTI crude<\/strong> (CL=F) punches and holds above $80<\/strong>, inflation and growth fears can compound. Tuesday’s high near $78 was quickly and forcefully rejected to the downside, which keeps this signal safe for now.<\/p>\n Next, if the US dollar index <\/strong>(DX-Y.NYB) pushes above 100<\/strong>, financial conditions tighten, weighing on risk markets. Tuesday’s swift rejection of the dollar’s advance to just under this level is also a positive.<\/p>\n Finally, if the S&P 500 <\/strong>(^GSPC) closes below 6,800<\/strong>, the stock market is signaling the shock is sticking. On Monday, this level was tested and held within a few points. Tuesday, it washed out to near 6,700 but then caught a huge bid \u2014 even turning green briefly \u2014 before closing at 6817. This is clearly the line in the sand for the bulls.<\/p>\n Worth monitoring, but not standalone signals: rice action in the 10-year yield (^TNX), gold (GC=F), and bitcoin (BTC-USD), which has perked up again, likely for technical reasons.<\/p>\n But if those three must-hold levels fail, lean defensive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n