{"id":5126,"date":"2026-01-20T03:21:28","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T03:21:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/forget-blackwell-nvidia-future-is-vera-rubin-agentic-software\/"},"modified":"2026-01-20T03:21:28","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T03:21:28","slug":"forget-blackwell-nvidia-future-is-vera-rubin-agentic-software","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/forget-blackwell-nvidia-future-is-vera-rubin-agentic-software\/","title":{"rendered":"Forget Blackwell, Nvidia future is Vera Rubin, agentic software"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div xmlns:default=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" data-testid=\"article-body\">\n<div class=\"bodyItems-wrapper\">\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Nvidia (NVDA) is officially moving beyond the &#8220;Hardware Wave&#8221; of the AI revolution. While the market remains fixated on Blackwell shipment counts, a more significant transition is quietly unfolding in the company&#8217;s margin profile: the shift to Vera Rubin and rise of <strong>Nvidia Inference Microservices (NIMs).<\/strong><!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->In 2026, I suspect the real catalyst for Nvidia&#8217;s next leg up isn&#8217;t just the number of Blackwell GPUs it can ship, but how effectively the company can monetize the &#8220;operating system&#8221; of the agentic AI era and transition to Vera Rubin. Agentic AI shifts the story from selling &#8220;shovels&#8221; to &#8220;automated miners,&#8221; creating a recurring-revenue moat that could de-risk the stock even if hardware cycles eventually cool.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The transition isn&#8217;t guaranteed, and uncertainty is evident in Nvidia&#8217;s stock price, which has mainly flatlined since the fall despite a 37% return in 2025. Shares are up only 2% over the past three months and are essentially unchanged year to date, ahead of their fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, scheduled for February 25, 2026.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->To kickstart Nvidia&#8217;s share price, investors are going to want to see three things in the upcoming February earnings report:<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<ul class=\"yf-h8k6hx\">\n<li class=\"yf-h8k6hx\">\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><strong>A frictionless Blackwell ramp-up<\/strong><!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-h8k6hx\">\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><strong>An improved Vera Rubin timeline<\/strong><!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-h8k6hx\">\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><strong>Growing sales from high-margin AI NIMs and blueprints<\/strong><!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->One defining narrative for Nvidia\u2019s upcoming earnings report is the execution of its &#8220;Blackwell Transition.&#8221; As the company moves from its record-breaking Hopper (H100\/H200) architecture to the Blackwell (B100\/B200\/B300) platform, investors will focus on the pace of its silicon ramp and easing silicon bottlenecks.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->In late 2025, CEO Jensen Huang noted Blackwell demand was &#8220;insane,&#8221; and in 2026, the question shifts from record-setting orders to the supply chain&#8217;s ability to fulfill them.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<figure data-testid=\"article-figure-image\" class=\"yf-1ems0tc\">\n<div class=\"image-container yf-lglytj loader\" style=\"--max-height: 540px;\">\n<div class=\"image-wrapper yf-lglytj\" style=\"--aspect-ratio: 960 \/ 540; --img-max-width: 960px;\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" alt=\"&lt;em&gt;Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang seeks to boost sales with Blackwell, Vera Rubin, and agentic AI in 2026.&lt;\/em&gt;PATRICK T&amp;period; FALLON &amp;sol; GETTY IMAGES\" loading=\"eager\" height=\"540\" width=\"960\" class=\"yf-lglytj loader\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"yf-1ems0tc\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><em>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang seeks to boost sales with Blackwell, Vera Rubin, and agentic AI in 2026.<\/em>PATRICK T&amp;period; FALLON &amp;sol; GETTY IMAGES<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <span class=\"caption-separator yf-1ems0tc\" data-svelte-h=\"svelte-nxhdlu\">\u00b7<\/span> <span>PATRICK T&amp;period; FALLON &amp;sol; GETTY IMAGES<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->There&#8217;s growing optimism that Nvidia has successfully navigated the packaging bottlenecks (specifically CoWoS-L capacity) that threatened to delay high-volume shipments and bottlenecked results in 2025.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->As of\u00a0<strong>January 2026<\/strong>, NVIDIA has reportedly booked\u00a0<strong>over 50%<\/strong>\u00a0(and potentially up to 800,000-850,000 wafers) of Taiwan Semiconductor&#8217;s total advanced packaging output for the year. With TSMC aggressively expanding to\u00a0<strong>120,000-130,000 wafers per month<\/strong>\u00a0by late 2026 (up from about 75,000 exiting 2025), Nvidia&#8217;s supply constraints may be behind it.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->At CES 2026, CEO Jensen Huang reaffirmed that while the Blackwell architecture remains the primary driver of current data center revenue, its successor, the\u00a0<strong>Rubin (R100) architectur<\/strong><strong>e<\/strong>,\u00a0is firmly on track for a <strong>late 2026 launch<\/strong>.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>   <button class=\"secondary-btn fin-size-large readmore-button    rounded   yf-r7dg9i\" data-ylk=\"elm:readmore;itc:1;sec:content-canvas;slk:Story%20Continues\" aria-label=\"Story Continues\" title=\"Story Continues\"> <span>Story Continues<\/span> <\/button> <\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more-wrapper\" style=\"display: none\" data-testid=\"read-more\">\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Currently in the critical sampling stage, Rubin features next-generation <strong>HBM4 memory<\/strong>, positioning Nvidia to maintain its lead in the &#8220;Agentic AI&#8221; era by offering a leap in power efficiency and inference throughput over the B200 series.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><strong>More Nvidia:<\/strong><!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Analysts now expect Nvidia to provide a &#8220;clean&#8221; shipment schedule during the Q4 call, confirming that Blackwell is reaching <strong>full-scale volume maturity<\/strong> by the end of the April quarter.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->This represents a critical &#8220;Information Gain&#8221; pivot for the stock; if CEO Jensen Huang confirms that the <strong>Blackwell Ultra (B300)<\/strong> mid-cycle refresh is already on track for <strong>H2 2026<\/strong>, it effectively dismantles the &#8220;demand air pocket&#8221; theories championed by bears.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->By bridging the gap between current B200 shipments and the upcoming B300 launch, Nvidia can prove that the AI hardware cycle is not peaking, but rather accelerating into a new phase of high-margin upgrades.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Furthermore, the transition is not just about new chips; it\u2019s about the <strong>GB200 NVL72<\/strong> racks. These liquid-cooled systems represent a massive jump in Average Selling Price (ASP) compared to individual GPUs.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->A B200 GPU can cost $30,000 to $40,000, while a GB200 NVL72 rack can cost $2 million to $3 million.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->If Huang or CFO Colette Kress indicates that the rack-scale systems are making up a larger percentage of Nvidia&#8217;s backlog, it may signal significant margin expansion that the market has not yet fully priced in.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Nvidia&#8217;s Q4 revenue will undoubtedly be massive, but the &#8220;next move&#8221; for its stock isn&#8217;t about past performance. In 2026, investors are no longer satisfied with &#8220;beats and raises&#8221;; they want evidence that the transition from Hopper (H100) to Blackwell (B200\/GB200) to Vera Rubin is happening without a &#8220;demand air pocket.&#8221;<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->&#8220;Vera Rubi<strong>n<\/strong> is now in full\u00a0production,\u00a0on track for 2H26,&#8221; wrote <strong>Bank of America<\/strong> in a research note shared with TheStreet. &#8220;We continue to highlight NVDA&#8217;s continued dominance in AI compute, networking, system, and ecosystem.&#8221;<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<ul class=\"yf-h8k6hx\">\n<li class=\"yf-h8k6hx\">\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><strong>The &#8220;CoWoS-L&#8221; Bottleneck:<\/strong> Much of the Blackwell ramp hinges on TSMC\u2019s advanced packaging capacity. Any commentary from Jensen Huang suggesting packaging yields are improving could be a green light for the stock.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-h8k6hx\">\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><strong>Gross Margin Compression:<\/strong> There&#8217;s a lingering fear that the initial Blackwell ramp will temporarily squeeze gross margins below 75% due to the complexity of the liquid-cooled <strong>NVL72 racks<\/strong>. If Nvidia&#8217;s margin guidance remains stable despite ramp-up costs, it could lead Wall Street analysts to conclude they&#8217;re too light on their earnings estimates.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-h8k6hx\">\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><strong>The &#8220;Hopper Tail&#8221;:<\/strong> If <strong>sovereign nations <\/strong>and smaller CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) continue buying Hopper 200 while Big Tech waits for Blackwell, Nvidia\u2019s &#8220;Earnings Floor&#8221; may be higher than the market realizes, especially if Huang says China H200 demand outstrips supply.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->&#8220;Management noted ongoing upward pressure to its input costs, including HBM memory and many other components,&#8221; wrote <strong>Goldman Sachs<\/strong> in a research note shared with TheStreet. &#8220;However, in 2026, Nvidia believes it can hold gross margins in the mid-70% range as higher pricing and other cost reductions offset these increased input costs.&#8221;<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->&#8220;Sovereign AI could represent a market of $600 billion by 2030,&#8221; McKinsey recently said.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->For the first time in a while, hardware is only half the story. As we move into 2026, the &#8220;Information Gain&#8221; that may drive the stock&#8217;s P\/E multiple is <strong>AI software monetization<\/strong>. Analysts are specifically looking for growth in <strong>Nvidia Inference Microservices<\/strong> (NIMs) and &#8220;AI Blueprints.&#8221;<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->These aren&#8217;t just developer tools; they are the &#8220;operating system&#8221; for the Agentic AI revolution.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><strong>Related: Fund manager pulls plug on popular semiconductor stock<\/strong><!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The shift is profound: Nvidia is moving from selling &#8220;shovels&#8221; (GPUs) to selling &#8220;automated miners&#8221; (Agents). During the Q4 call, the market will be hyper-focused on how many enterprise customers are moving from the &#8220;experimental&#8221; phase of AI into &#8220;production-grade&#8221; autonomous agents.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->If Nvidia can demonstrate that its software revenue is becoming a predictable, recurring stream, it helps de-risk the stock from the cyclical nature of hardware sales.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->NVIDIA AI Enterprise, its software suite, can cost $4,500 per GPU per year.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->In addition, the introduction of &#8220;Digital Workers&#8221; powered by Nvidia\u2019s NIMs provides a new value proposition for the Fortune 500. By providing the full stack \u2014 from the Blackwell silicon to the software frameworks that enable agents to &#8220;reason&#8221; and &#8220;act&#8221; \u2014 Nvidia is building a moat that competitors like AMD and Intel are still years away from replicating.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Watch for management to highlight &#8220;Software ARR&#8221; (Annual Recurring Revenue) as a hidden engine that could drive the next leg of the NVDA bull run.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><strong>What do you think?<\/strong><!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Is the market underestimating the Blackwell ramp, or is the AI pivot already priced into Nvidia\u2019s $3 trillion valuation? Join the conversation in the comments below.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><em>Todd Campbell owns shares in Nvidia.<\/em><!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><strong>Related: Nvidia CEO sends biblical-scale reality check on AI<\/strong><!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-vbsvxt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START --><i>This story was originally published by TheStreet on Jan 18, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.<\/i><!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nvidia (NVDA) is officially moving beyond the &#8220;Hardware Wave&#8221; of the AI revolution. While the market remains fixated on Blackwell shipment counts, a more significant transition is quietly unfolding in the company&#8217;s margin profile: the shift to Vera Rubin and rise of Nvidia Inference Microservices (NIMs). In 2026, I suspect the real catalyst for Nvidia&#8217;s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5127,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_daextam_enable_autolinks":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[10],"tags":[668,665,666,664,144,667,663],"class_list":["post-5126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-news","tag-blackwell","tag-blackwell-transition","tag-blackwell-ultra","tag-jensen-huang","tag-nvidia","tag-the-blackwell","tag-vera-rubin"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/893a780635746591a171992b79cf4b25.jpeg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5126","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5126"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5126\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5127"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5126"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5126"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5126"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}