{"id":54619,"date":"2026-03-18T01:02:48","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T01:02:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/2-vanguard-index-funds-to-beat-the-sp-500-over-the-next-10-years-according-to-analysts\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T01:02:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T01:02:48","slug":"2-vanguard-index-funds-to-beat-the-sp-500-over-the-next-10-years-according-to-analysts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/2-vanguard-index-funds-to-beat-the-sp-500-over-the-next-10-years-according-to-analysts\/","title":{"rendered":"2 Vanguard Index Funds to Beat the S&P 500 Over the Next 10 Years, According to Analysts"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The S&P 500<\/strong> (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)<\/span> has been dominated by a handful of megacap growth stocks over the last few years. Their strong performance of these select stocks has led to the benchmark index posting total returns of 26%, 25%, and 18% in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. Those returns are well above average, and it’s reasonable to expect a reversion to the mean going forward.<\/p>\n
But while the growth stock-led S&P 500 has hit new all-time highs, many other stocks have been left in the dust. Analysts at Vanguard expect a couple of key groups of stocks to outperform over the next decade as a result. And the good news for investors is that it offers simple, inexpensive ETFs you can buy to invest in market segments poised to outperform the large-cap index.<\/p>\n
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Vanguard analysts provide quarterly updates for investors on its Capital Markets Model forecasts. The model uses valuations to project long-term prospects for equities, bonds, and other asset classes as well as inflation.<\/p>\n
Vanguard notes that valuations tend to be poor predictors of short-term returns but can be useful for longer-term predictions. As such, it doesn’t recommend using these predictions as the primary reason for changing portfolio allocations. That said, long-term outlooks can offer ideas for investors thinking about the markets going forward.<\/p>\n
The most recent update from Vanguard’s model shows two segments of the market outperforming over the long run: small-cap stocks and value stocks. The analysts see small-cap stocks producing annualized returns of 6.2% and value stocks producing 6.8% average returns. That compares to expected returns of 4.9% for U.S. equities overall and 4.8% for large-cap stocks in particular.<\/p>\n
With valuations as the core basis for Vanguard’s model, it’s easy to see why it expects small-cap and value stocks to outperform. At the start of 2026, the valuation spread between growth stocks and value stocks is at its widest since the peak of the dot-com bubble. The trailing P\/E for the Russell 1000 Growth<\/strong> index was 39.32 compared to just 22.12 for the Russell 1000 Value<\/strong> index.<\/p>\n
Likewise, the valuation gap between the large-cap S&P 500 and the small-cap S&P 600 is also notable. The S&P 500 traded for a forward P\/E of 24 at the end of 2025 compared to a 16-times earnings ratio for the S&P 600. That’s despite similar earnings growth outlooks.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n