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The\u00a0S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.64%,\u00a0the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI)\u00a0(DIA) is up +0.59%, and the\u00a0Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.80%.\u00a0 March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.57%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.78%.<\/p>\n
Stocks are climbing today amid strength in chipmakers and travel stocks.\u00a0 Also, lower bond yields are supportive of stocks, as the 10-year T-note yield is down -2 bp to 4.20% after the ADP weekly employment change for the four weeks ended February 28 increased by +9,000, the smallest increase in five weeks, a sign of a slowdown in hiring by US employers.\u00a0 Stocks also found some support after today\u2019s report showed US Feb pending home sales unexpectedly rose +1.8% m\/m, stronger than expectations of a -0.6% m\/m decline.<\/p>\n
Stocks are being undercut today as crude oil prices rose after Iran renewed attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Middle East.\u00a0WTI crude oil (CLJ26) is up more than +1% today after operations were suspended at the Shah gas field in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while Iranian drones and missiles also targeted an Iraqi oil field.\u00a0 Also, crude loadings from the UAE\u2019s port at Fujairah were halted again after Iranian drone attacks.<\/p>\n
The war with Iran is in its eighteenth day with no end in sight.\u00a0Late Monday, President Trump said he will delay his summit later this month with Chinese President Xi Jinping in China until next month, saying it was important for him to remain in Washington to oversee the military operations against Iran.\u00a0 Meanwhile, Mr. Trump renewed calls for other nations to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to expand strikes to Iranian oil infrastructure if Iran keeps up attacks on other Persian Gulf energy producers.<\/p>\n
Crude oil prices remain high despite attempts to boost global supplies.\u00a0The IEA last Wednesday released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month.\u00a0 The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world\u2019s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran\u2019s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can\u2019t export from the region.\u00a0 Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
The 2-day FOMC meeting begins today, and market expectations are for the Fed to keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.\u00a0With the Jan core PCE price index, the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, at 3.1%, well above the Fed\u2019s 2.0% target, the Fed is expected to signal an extended pause ahead.<\/p>\n
The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the Tue\/Wed policy meeting.<\/p>\n
Overseas stock markets are mixed today.\u00a0 The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.94%.\u00a0 China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.85%.\u00a0 Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.09%.<\/p>\n
Interest Rates<\/strong><\/p>\n June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +5 ticks.\u00a0 The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.0 bp to 4.197%.\u00a0 T-note prices shook off early losses and turned higher today after the weak ADP report signaled a slowdown in US employer hiring, which is dovish for Fed policy.<\/p>\n Gains in T-notes are limited today amid a +1% jump in WTI crude oil prices, which has raised inflation expectations.\u00a0 Also, an unexpected increase in Feb pending home sales was bearish for T-notes.\u00a0 In addition, supply pressures are negative for T-notes as the Treasury will auction $13 billion of 20-year T-bonds later today.<\/p>\n European government bond yields are moving lower today.\u00a0 The 10-year German bund yield is down -4.1 bp to 2.911%.\u00a0 The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -6.3 bp to 4.707%.<\/p>\n The German Mar ZEW survey expectations of economic growth index fell -58.8 to an 11-month low of -0.5, weaker than expectations of 39.2.<\/p>\n Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting this Thursday.<\/p>\n US Stock Movers<\/strong><\/p>\n Chip stocks and AI-infrastructure companies are moving higher today, a supportive factor for the broader market.\u00a0 Western Digital\u00a0(WDC)\u00a0is up more than +4%\u00a0to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and\u00a0ARM Holdings Plc\u00a0(ARM) is also up more than +4%.\u00a0 Also, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) and Micron Technology\u00a0(MU) are up more than +3%.\u00a0 In addition, KLA Corp (KLAC) and Qualcomm (QCOM) are up more than +2%, and\u00a0Lam Research\u00a0(LRCX), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and NXP Semiconductors NV\u00a0(NXPI) are up more than +1%.<\/p>\n Software stocks are stronger today, supporting gains in the broader market.\u00a0 CrowdStrike Holdings\u00a0(CRWD) is up more than +3%, and\u00a0Intuit\u00a0(INTU), Datadog\u00a0(DDOG),\u00a0ServiceNow (NOW), Autodesk\u00a0(ADSK), and Workday\u00a0(WDAY)\u00a0are up more than +2%.\u00a0 Also, International Business Machines\u00a0(IBM), Adobe Systems\u00a0(ADBE), and Cadence Design Systems\u00a0(CDNS)\u00a0are up more than +1%.<\/p>\n Delta Air Lines\u00a0(DAL) is up more than +3% to lead airline stocks higher after raising its Q1 revenue forecast to high-single-digit growth, up from a previous forecast of 5% to 7%.\u00a0 Also,\u00a0Alaska Air Group (ALK), United Airlines Holdings\u00a0(UAL),\u00a0American Airlines Group\u00a0(AAL), and\u00a0Southwest Airlines\u00a0(LUV) are\u00a0up more than +2%.<\/p>\n Travel and hotel stocks are rallying today after US airline executives said they are seeing an increase in bookings as travelers rush to buy tickets ahead of a likely surge in prices because of fuel costs.\u00a0 Expedia Group\u00a0(EXPE)\u00a0is up more than +5%, and Hyatt Hotels\u00a0(H)\u00a0and MGM Resorts International (MGM)\u00a0are up more than +4%.\u00a0 Also, Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN), Booking Holdings\u00a0(BKNG),\u00a0and Airbnb\u00a0(ABNB)\u00a0are up more than +3%.\u00a0 In addition, Las Vegas Sands\u00a0(LVS), Hilton Worldwide Holdings\u00a0(HLT), and Marriott International\u00a0(MAR)\u00a0are up more than +2%.<\/p>\n Lemonde Inc\u00a0(LMND) is up more than +14% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $85.<\/p>\n Uber Technologies\u00a0(UBER) is up more than +5%, and Lyft\u00a0(LYFT)\u00a0is up more than +4% after Nvidia announced separate autonomous vehicle partnerships with the companies.<\/p>\n Align Technology\u00a0(ALGN)\u00a0is up by more than +4% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $200.<\/p>\n Dover Corp\u00a0(DOV)\u00a0is up more than +2% after Wells Fargo Securities upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $230.<\/p>\n Janus Henderson Group Plc\u00a0(JHG) is up more than +2% after Victory Capital revised its bid to acquire the company.<\/p>\n Semtech\u00a0(SMTC) is down more than -8% after forecasting Q1 adjusted EPS of 42 cents to 48 cents, the low end of the range below the consensus of 43 cents.<\/p>\n Eli Lilly & Co\u00a0(LLY)\u00a0is down more than -3%\u00a0to lead losers in the S&P 500\u00a0after HSBC downgraded the stock to sell from hold with a price target of $850.<\/p>\n Cencora\u00a0(COR)\u00a0is down more than -3% after the company said CFO James Cleary will retire on June 30.<\/p>\n Honeywell International\u00a0(HON)\u00a0is down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after executives said the Iran war is a headwind to Q1 revenue.<\/p>\n Earnings Reports(3\/17\/2026)<\/strong><\/p>\n DocuSign Inc. (DOCU) and Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU).<\/p>\n On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally\u00a0published on Barchart.com <\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n