\n<\/p>\n
By Mike Dolan<\/p>\n
March 24 – What matters in U.S. and global markets today<\/p>\n
By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets<\/p>\n
As President Trump\u2019s 48-hour countdown to attacks on Iranian power plants becomes five days thanks to an apparent breakthrough with Tehran, markets are as confused as anybody about who exactly \u200cis talking to who. U.S. and Iranian messaging on the matter differs starkly.<\/p>\n
Trump’s announcement caused wild market swings on Monday, with oil plunging, stocks rallying, \u200cand yields easing. But some of that relief momentum is looking a little less certain today.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll get into that and more below.<\/p>\n
But first, check out my latest column on how bonds’ Iran-war doldrums fit a long \u200bhistorical pattern – and what might be needed for a turnaround.<\/p>\n
And catch today\u2019s episode of the Morning Bid podcast, where I unpack the whiplash and contradictions roiling markets. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.<\/p>\n
FROM 48 HOURS TO FIVE DAYS<\/p>\n
Oil prices plunged more than 10% on Monday in the wake of Trump’s announcement, with Brent dropping to as low as $97 per barrel and WTI touching $86. Other markets rallied on the back of that, with all major U.S. stock indexes finishing up more \u200cthan 1%.<\/p>\n
But Iran claimed that no negotiations with the U.S. \u2060had taken place and that the whole thing was \u201cfake news\u201d aimed at calming markets.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s dampened things somewhat, with oil retracing some of its losses on Tuesday to leave Brent hovering just above $100 per barrel and U.S. crude around $90.<\/p>\n
In equities, Asian shares managed to eke out \u2060a gain on Tuesday, but European shares were shaky and U.S. stock futures edged down before the bell.<\/p>\n
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed – except to a handful of India-flagged tankers – and missiles kept flying overnight. If nothing gets resolved, it\u2019s going to be another nervous Friday ahead.<\/p>\n
Whatever the truth behind all the politics and maneuvering, financial traders subscribing to the idea that Trump always \u200bbacks \u200bdown when financial markets quake will see this latest episode as confirmation of that stance.<\/p>\n
Specifically, the \u200bsurge in U.S. Treasury yields early on Monday to their highest \u200cin seven months – before easing after Trump’s post – was another indication that rising government borrowing costs are the president’s kryptonite during his more disruptive ventures.<\/p>\n
Either way, markets remain nervous and will today keep tabs on just how much damage the Middle East conflict has done to business confidence in March as flash business surveys are released around the world.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Elsewhere, Asian countries are examining different ways to alleviate energy costs and shortages, with South Korea exploring an energy saving campaign and China limiting rises in its fuel price ceiling.<\/p>\n
And Japan recorded a surprisingly large drop in inflation for February, back below 2% for the first time in nearly four years. Although the figures are from before the war, \u200cthey could complicate things for the Bank of Japan as it strikes a more hawkish tone.<\/p>\n
In \u200bmore anxiety-inducing news from the private credit world, Apollo on Monday became the latest asset manager to \u200bcap heavy redemptions from its flagship private credit fund. It will curb redemptions \u200bat 5% of its shares after investors tried to withdraw approximately 11.2% of the total.<\/p>\n
Chart of the day<\/p>\n
Futures markets no longer see \u200cany further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year, with the energy \u200bshock from the Iran war expected to \u200bkeep U.S. inflation at levels that keep the Fed on hold at least until the second half of 2027.<\/p>\n
Today’s events to watch<\/p>\n
* U.S. March S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs (9:45 a.m. EDT)<\/p>\n
* U.S. 2-year note auction<\/p>\n
* Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks<\/p>\n
* EU\u2019s Ursula von der Leyen meets with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese<\/p>\n
* \u200bDenmark holds a general election<\/p>\n
Want to receive the Morning Bid \u200cin your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow \u200bus on LinkedIn and X.<\/p>\n
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, \u200bis committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.<\/p>\n
(By Mike DolanEditing by Keith Weir)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n