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The\u00a0S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -1.23%,\u00a0the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI)\u00a0(DIA) is down -1.07%, and the\u00a0Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -1.36%.\u00a0 March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -1.16%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -1.20%.<\/p>\n
Stock indexes are sharply lower today, with the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrials, and the Nasdaq 100 falling to 2-week lows.\u00a0Rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe over control of Greenland have led to a risk-off mood in asset markets.\u00a0 President Trump\u2019s push to take over Greenland is reviving fears of trade confrontations between the US and its European allies, with little sign of de-escalation.\u00a0Overnight, President Trump threatened steep tariffs on French champagne after French President Macron ruled out joining a US-led peace initiative.\u00a0 President Trump over the weekend announced a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries starting February 1, rising to 25% in June, unless there\u2019s a deal for the \u201cpurchase of Greenland.\u201d<\/p>\n
Rising bond yields are also weighing on stocks today.\u00a0 The 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 4.75-month high of 4.31% today, driven by concern about an independent Fed and negative carryover from soaring Japanese government bond yields.\u00a0 Japan\u2019s 10-year JGB bond yield rose to a 27-year high today of 2.359% on Japanese fiscal concerns after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi promised a temporary sales tax cut on food if she wins a fresh mandate for her new coalition.<\/p>\n
The strength of gold and silver mining companies today is a positive factor for stocks, as the Greenland crisis prompted safe-haven buying of precious metals and pushed their prices to all-time highs.\u00a0 Also, concerns that Japan’s expansionary fiscal policies will lead to soaring deficits are boosting demand for precious metals as a store of value.<\/p>\n
US natural gas-producing stocks are soaring today as the price of nat-gas (NGG26) surged more than +22% to a 3-week high.<\/p>\n
The market\u2019s focus this week will be on economic news and any fresh developments on tariffs, the next Fed Chair, and Greenland.\u00a0 On Wednesday, Dec pending home sales are expected to fall -0.5% m\/m.\u00a0 On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to climb by +12,000 to 210,000.\u00a0 Also, Q3 GDP is expected to be unrevised at +4.3% (q\/q annualized).\u00a0 In addition, Nov personal spending is expected to be up +0.5% m\/m, and Nov personal income is expected to rise +0.4% m\/m.\u00a0 Finally, the Nov core PCE price index (the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge) is expected to rise by +0.2% m\/m and +2.8% y\/y.\u00a0 On Friday, the Jan S&P US manufacturing PMI is expected to be up by +0.2 to 52.0.\u00a0 Also, the final University of Michigan Jan US consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised at 54.0.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Q4 earnings season begins in earnest this week and, so far, has been a positive factor for stocks, with 88% of the 33 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.\u00a0 According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4.\u00a0 Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.<\/p>\n
The Supreme Court today did not issue a ruling on challenges to President Trump\u2019s reciprocal tariffs.\u00a0 The court did not say when it will issue its next opinions, meaning it will likely be at least another month before ruling on the tariffs, as the court begins a four-week recess.<\/p>\n
The markets are discounting the odds to 5% for a -25 bp rate cut at the FOMC\u2019s next meeting on January 27-28.<\/p>\n
Overseas stock markets are lower today.\u00a0 The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 2-week low and is down by -0.73%. \u00a0China\u2019s Shanghai Composite dropped to a 1.5-week low and closed down by -0.01%.\u00a0 Japan\u2019s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down by -1.11%.<\/p>\n
Interest Rates<\/strong><\/p>\n March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down by -6 ticks.\u00a0 The 10-year T-note yield is up by +4.6 bp to 4.269%.\u00a0 Mar T-notes tumbled to a 5-month low today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 4.75-month high of 4.307%.\u00a0 Rising inflation expectations are bearish for T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate climbed to a 3.25-month high of 2.342% today. \u00a0Also, negative carryover from a surge in global bond yields, triggered by today’s jump in the 10-year Japan bond yield to a 27-year high, of 2.359%, is weighing on T-notes.\u00a0 Markets are concerned that if JGB yields continue to rise, Japanese investors, the largest holders of US debt securities, will sell their US assets and move capital back to Japan.<\/p>\n T-notes are also under pressure after President Trump last Friday expressed reluctance to name Keven Hassett as the next Fed Chair and said he would prefer to keep him as National Economic Council director.\u00a0 The markets saw Hassett as the most dovish candidate and the top contender for the Fed Chair nomination, so nominating someone like Kevin Warsh, a known hawk and the second-most-likely Fed Chair candidate, would be bearish for T-note prices.<\/p>\n European government bond yields are moving higher today.\u00a0 The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 2-week high of 2.894% and is up +2.0 bp to 2.860%. \u00a0The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 2-week high of 4.495% and is up +3.8 bp to 4.452%.<\/p>\n The German Jan ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +13.8 to a 4.5-year high of 59.6, stronger than expectations of 50.0.<\/p>\n German Dec PPI fell -2.5% y\/y, weaker than expectations of -2.4% y\/y and the largest drop in 20 months.<\/p>\n Swaps are discounting a 0% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.<\/p>\n US Stock Movers<\/strong><\/p>\n The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are sliding today and weighing on the overall market.\u00a0 Nvidia (NVDA)\u00a0and Tesla\u00a0(TSLA)\u00a0are down more than -2%.\u00a0 Also, Amazon.com\u00a0(AMZN), Meta Platforms\u00a0(META), Alphabet\u00a0(GOOGL),\u00a0Microsoft\u00a0(MSFT),\u00a0and Apple\u00a0(AAPL)\u00a0are down more than -1%.<\/p>\n Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are sliding today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -2% at a 1-week low.\u00a0Strategy\u00a0(MSTR)\u00a0is down more than -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.\u00a0 Also, Mara Holdings\u00a0(MARA) is down more than -5%, and\u00a0 Riot Platforms\u00a0(RIOT), Coinbase Global\u00a0(COIN),\u00a0and Galaxy Digital Holdings\u00a0(GLXY)\u00a0are down by more than -3%.<\/p>\n Gold and silver mining stocks are climbing today as gold and silver prices climb to new all-time highs. \u00a0Newmont Mining\u00a0(NEM) is up more than +3%, and Barrick Mining\u00a0(B) is up more than +2%.\u00a0 Also,\u00a0Hecla Mining\u00a0(HL),\u00a0Coeur Mining\u00a0(CDE), and Freeport McMoRan\u00a0(FCX) are up more than +1%.<\/p>\n US natural gas-producing stocks are soaring today as the price of nat-gas surged more than +25% to a 3-week high.\u00a0 Coterra Energy\u00a0(CTRA) is up by more than +3%.\u00a0 Also, Antero Resources\u00a0(AR)\u00a0and Range Resources\u00a0(RRC)\u00a0are up more than +2%.\u00a0 In addition, CNX Resources\u00a0(CNX)\u00a0and EQT Corp\u00a0(EQT)\u00a0are up more than +1%.<\/p>\n NetApp\u00a0(NTAP) is down more than -8% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $89.<\/p>\n 3M Co.\u00a0(MMM) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $8.50-$8.70, the midpoint below the consensus of $8.64.<\/p>\n Fastenal (FAST) is down more than -4% after reporting Q4 net sales of $2.03 billion, below the consensus of $2.04 billion.<\/p>\n Rockwell Automation\u00a0(ROK) is down more than -4% after Oppenheimer downgraded the stock to perform from outperform.<\/p>\n AppLovin (APP) is down by more than -1% after a negative research report from CapitalWatch, which raised concerns about systemic compliance risks and suspicions of financial crimes.<\/p>\n RAPT Therapeutics\u00a0(RAPT) is up more than +62% after GSK Plc agreed to buy the company for about $2.2 billion, or $58 a share.<\/p>\n Intel\u00a0(INTC) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Seaport Global Securities upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $65.<\/p>\n Albemarle (ALB) is up by more than +4% after HSBC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $200.<\/p>\n Micron Technology\u00a0(MU) is up more than +2% after Stifel raised its price target on the stock to $360 from $300.<\/p>\n Brinker International\u00a0(EAT) is up more than +2% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $200.<\/p>\n Earnings Reports(1\/20\/2026)<\/strong><\/p>\n 3M Co (MMM), DR Horton Inc (DHI), Fastenal Co (FAST), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR), KeyCorp (KEY), Netflix Inc (NFLX), United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL), US Bancorp (USB).<\/p>\n On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally\u00a0published on Barchart.com <\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n