\n<\/p>\n
Republicans are breathing a little easier this weekend, cautiously optimistic that President Donald Trump has found an off-ramp to end the war in Iran.<\/p>\n
With oil dropping below $90 a barrel, the stock market making new all-time highs, and gas down 8 cents a gallon this week, some feel the slightest bit of wind at their back for the first time since the war began in late February.<\/p>\n
\u201cEveryone knows the historical trends. But at least lower gas prices, putting the war actively behind us, can restore some of the momentum from post-State of the Union,\u201d said Matt Gorman, a GOP communications strategist at Targeted Victory. \u201cRepublicans are dying for the ability to get back on offense.\u201d<\/p>\n
Whether Trump and Iran afford them that chance remains to be seen. Iranian military officials said Saturday that they have once again taken “strict control”of the Strait of Hormuz because of the ongoing U.S. blockade, a mark of just how fragile and possibly fleeting progress may be. The move came as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gunboats fired on a tanker attempting to pass through the strait.<\/p>\n
While it may seem early to pop the champagne \u2014Iran, for example, also denied that it agreed to move its enriched uranium to the U.S. as Trump claimed \u2014 the solace is in proportion to just how miserable things had looked only a few days ago. The trick now, Republicans say, is keeping the distractions to a minimum \u2014 no small task when the leader of the party is one social media post away from a new controversy. Success also rests on the administration\u2019s theory of a quick economic rebound proving accurate \u2014 and voters feeling the relief.<\/p>\n
\u201cShort term, certainly relieved, but it\u2019s the mini political hand grenades that continue to be challenging,\u201d said one GOP donor, granted anonymity to speak candidly. \u201cRather than be able [to] solely focus on tax refunds this week, members got questions about the pope and the ballroom.\u201d<\/p>\n
The frayed nerves underscore just how deleterious the last few weeks have been for the GOP\u2019s supporters and strategists. The war with Iran was never popular, fractured the MAGA base and raised questions about the president\u2019s position on a core movement principle. Polls show the House is likely lost and the Senate could be in play. And the spike in gas prices could negate one of the president\u2019s signature achievements \u2014 a massive tax cut that was supposed to line voters\u2019 pockets and stimulate the economy. Along the way, a feud with the pope, a setback in the war and Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s loss in Hungary gave the impression of an administration at the mercy of events rather than in control of them.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Iran issue remains a contributing factor to a broader set of fundamental concerns that voters have about the economy and global stability,\u201d said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist and partner at Penta, a Washington-based consulting firm. \u201cIt’s good that tensions are easing. The main consideration though, in the context of 2026 midterms, is how durable today’s posture is.\u201d<\/p>\n
The permanence of the duel ceasefires \u2014 in Iran and Lebanon \u2014 is uncertain, at best, but Tehran\u2019s decision earlier this week to allow passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with European leaders\u2019 pledge to help secure it gives hope to the Republicans who believe their fate is tied to the price at the pump.<\/p>\n
“Big sigh of relief from congressional Republicans today,\u201d said former Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a Republican from Florida. \u201cIt seems they will be able to put the Iran conflict in the rear view mirror; still with plenty of time to refocus the electorate on tax relief and other issues. It will be a steep uphill climb, but now they\u2019ll have a chance.”<\/p>\n
The good news on Friday proved the president\u2019s argument that economic disruptions from the war would be brief, said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers.<\/p>\n
\u201cTime and time again, the \u2018panicans\u2019 are proven wrong by President Trump who consistently delivers on his promises to the American people. The President remains laser focused on keeping the American people safe, lowering costs for working families, and making our country greater than ever before,\u201d Rogers said. \u201cThe President was always clear that these were short-term, temporary disruptions that would be resolved through the unprecedented successes of Operation Epic Fury and subsequent ongoing peace talks.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump, too, was in a celebratory mood. On Friday in Arizona, the second and last stop on a southwest tour through battleground states to promote his tax cuts, Trump told reporters it was a \u201cbig day.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ll see how it all turns out but it should be good, had some very good discussions,\u201d Trump said. \u201cThe talks are going on, it will go on over the weekend and a lot of good things are happening.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump, speaking at a Turning Point USA event, appeared to be in an upbeat mood, touting a lower trade deficit, the end of DEI, and tax cuts among other items he believes are highlights of the second term, and he explicitly tied those successes to the need to win the midterms.<\/p>\n
“You must go out and vote Republican, we need that,” Trump said, before basking in the day’s good news. “Did you see oil is down today? Did you see prices are down today?”<\/p>\n
Still, not everyone shared Trump\u2019s enthusiasm, with some Republicans wary that a Trump-sized shoe was about to drop.<\/p>\n
\u201cI would say I\u2019m cautiously optimistic, not a full-blown believer that this will hold,\u201d said a GOP operative working in a swing state.<\/p>\n
And for all the elation, some Republicans, especially those less enthralled with Trump\u2019s leadership, still see the spate of good news as doing little to stop the blue wave heading toward them.<\/p>\n
“An end to the war with Iran that results in Iran giving up its highly enriched uranium and shutting down its military nuclear program would increase the chances of Republicans only losing the House by a 15-20 vote margin,\u201d deadpanned former Rep. Ken Buck, a Colorado Republican.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n