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(NewsNation) \u2014 Federal officials say there is a growing chance the climate phenomenon known as El Ni\u00f1o will develop this summer, with some forecasts suggesting a historically strong one is on its way.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o is a warming of the ocean\u2019s surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, according to the United States Geological Survey. It occurs once every two to seven years and affects weather patterns worldwide.<\/p>\n
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gives a roughly 60% chance El Ni\u00f1o will emerge between May and July of this year, with that probability rising to 90% between Aug. and Oct.<\/p>\n
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NOAA announced earlier this month that La Ni\u00f1a, the opposite weather phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures, has officially ended.<\/p>\n
The \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d circumstance occurs when temperatures rise at least 2.0\u00b0C above normal, according to Matthew Sittel, assistant state climatologist at Kansas State University.<\/p>\n
While this level of El Ni\u00f1o is rare, with only four since 1950, NOAA says there\u2019s approximately a 50% chance this year\u2019s could develop into a \u201cstrong\u201d or \u201cvery strong\u201d one. The last super El Ni\u00f1o occurred during 2015 and lasted into 2016.<\/p>\n
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Federal officials note that a stronger El Ni\u00f1o doesn\u2019t necessarily equate to more extreme weather.<\/p>\n
\u201cStronger events do not always mean bigger weather and climate impacts,\u201d according to NOAA. \u201cStronger events make it more likely that certain impacts could occur.\u201d<\/p>\n
The impacts of El Ni\u00f1o are typically felt in the United States during the cool months, between Oct. and May, according to NOAA.<\/p>\n
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The super El Ni\u00f1o prediction means the traditional weather impacts of the phenomenon, such as warm, dry winter weather in the northern half of the country, and a wetter, colder winter for the southern states, are likely to occur, Nexstar\u2019s Alix Martichoux reports.<\/p>\n
However, if El Ni\u00f1o starts in the summer, as forecasters currently expect, it could also dramatically increase temperatures and contribute to heat waves before winter arrives, Martichoux added. This comes on the heels of a record-breaking spring, during which many states have set all-time heat records.<\/p>\n
A strong El Ni\u00f1o could also lead to a milder hurricane season in the Atlantic. Andy Hazelton, associate scientist at the University of Miami CIMAS,\u00a0predicted it might be\u00a0\u201cthe quietest season since 2015.\u201d<\/p>\n
Nexstar\u2019s Alix Martichoux and Jeremy Tanner contributed to this report.<\/em><\/p>\n Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/i><\/p>\n For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to NewsNation. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n