I want to start by acknowledging the obvious: It\u2019s too early to judge this draft class.\u00a0At least for me.<\/p>\n
In 2022, Dane\u2019s\u00a0top classes\u00a0turned out elite. In\u00a02023, the Lions should\u2019ve been higher and Colts lower, but otherwise: spot on. Similar successes in\u00a02024\u00a0and\u00a02025.<\/p>\n
So I\u2019m doing something a bit different here.<\/strong> I don\u2019t have the expertise of Dane, so I\u2019m classifying later-round picks based on where experts like him thought they should\u2019ve been drafted, according to the pre-draft consensus top 300.<\/p>\n Think of it like buying a hot dog and soda. At Costco, it\u2019s $1.50 (with a free refill!). Steal. That same combo at an MLB game could be $15 (try asking for a free refill!). Fair value is probably about $5.<\/p>\n These are the Costco combos of the 2026 class,\u00a0the prospects nabbed for less than their projected value<\/strong>:<\/p>\n What happened here?<\/strong>\u00a0Either the consensus was wrong, the public is unaware of something important (like medicals) or teams missed on talented prospects.<\/p>\n It\u2019s often that last part. The consensus has been right\u00a0about as often\u00a0as NFL teams have. A quick look back at\u00a02025\u2019s biggest steals confirms this. Nick Emmanwori slipped 13 spots into the second round, then won a Super Bowl and nearly won Defensive Rookie of the Year. That\u2019s just one example.<\/p>\n So there\u2019s still hope for prospects like these, who plummeted down draft boards:<\/p>\n Colts WR Deion Burks.<\/strong>\u00a0Indy executives see Oklahoma\u2019s undersized Burks (5-10, 180 pounds and actually one of the combine\u2019s two\u00a0strongest<\/em> receivers) as a weapon: \u201cYou want to create explosive plays, get the ball in this guy\u2019s hands any way you can,\u201d\u00a0said\u00a0coach Shane Steichen. \u201cHe\u2019s a (4.3 speed) guy that can fly.\u201d<\/p>\n Lions CB Keith Abney II<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/strong>One of the few players on this list whom Dane had above the consensus. His No. 9 corner is a small but physical defender from Arizona State.\u00a0Detroit\u2019s best value pick\u00a0could be a starter before long.<\/p>\n As for the MLB-ballpark equivalents?\u00a0These are the 2026 draftees who probably could\u2019ve been cheaper,\u00a0<\/strong>meaning they were drafted earlier than their rankings in\u00a0the\u00a0consensus\u00a0(unranked players excluded):<\/p>\n The most intriguing rookie there is Caleb Douglas.\u00a0<\/strong>The Texas Tech product was the earliest of three draftees joining the Dolphins\u2019 depleted receiver room, meaning he could be a Week 1 starter.<\/p>\n Dane says his No. 31 receiver\u00a0plays like \u201ca diet version of Dontayvion Wicks.\u201d Not what you want to hear about your potential WR1, but Wicks\u00a0did<\/em>\u00a0have some\u00a0big games in Green Bay. The upside is here for Miami.<\/p>\n The 49ers are the only team to appear twice on that list, and have two of its three biggest reaches. It gets worse.\u00a0Seven of San Francisco\u2019s eight rookies were drafted earlier than expected.\u00a0<\/strong>Fifth-rounder Jaden Dugger of Louisiana wasn\u2019t even among the top 300 prospects.<\/p>\n It\u2019s clear that John Lynch, Kyle Shanahan and co. fully trust their judgement.\u00a0Should\u00a0they?<\/p>\n Probably not when it comes to Indiana running back Kaelon Black, drafted 120 spots ahead of consensus. As noted by one of our 49ers beat writers, Matt Barrows, \u201cThey have a\u00a0conspicuously sketchy history\u00a0when it comes to mid-round running backs.\u201d<\/p>\n Then again, price isn\u2019t everything.\u00a0<\/strong>A hot dog and soda is much better at a sunny baseball game than in the Costco food court,\u00a0and some teams\u00a0are\u00a0<\/em>better at identifying which players are worth reaching for. Let\u2019s talk about that next.<\/p>\n This article is from The Athletic\u2019s NFL newsletter. Sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n We might be skeptical of the 49ers\u2019 class, but we should rarely doubt Lions general manager Brad Holmes.<\/p>\n Last year, Nick Baumgardner checked five years of data to determine which teams draft better than others. Some deserve the benefit of the doubt. Others don\u2019t.<\/p>\n Nick\u2019s 2020s draft-aptitude rankings (method explained here):<\/p>\n Yes, the uber-confident 49ers have been<\/strong>\u00a0pretty average drafters.\u00a0<\/strong>They\u2019ve seemed insistent on reaching for\u00a0their guys<\/em>, so we\u2019re right to be skeptical. Trey Lance, anyone?! (This makes it even more impressive that Shanahan usually wins double-digit games anyway, I guess.)<\/p>\n Elsewhere in 2026, outside of one reach by both Detroit and Baltimore, none of the top four drafters\u00a0picked a player more than 35 spots before the consensus, meaning they almost always stayed within a round of collective wisdom. The\u00a0average<\/em> pick by the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Ravens was actually cheaper than the consensus-anticipated cost. Costco shoppers know that strategy works.<\/p>\n Over to Jake Ciely for two rookies your fantasy team could use.<\/p>\n A few days ago, I shared the draft\u2019s winners and losers from a\u00a0fantasy perspective.\u00a0This isn\u2019t a complete list, but more about each player\u2019s boost (or drop-off) when compared to pre-draft hopes.<\/p>\n In that sense, Jeremiyah Love isn\u2019t an NFL Draft \u201cwinner.\u201d We knew he\u2019d be a top pick, and you can argue there was a better landing spot than Arizona.<\/p>\n My two big winners for 2026:<\/p>\n Plenty more winners and losers \u2014 including new Browns receiver KC Concepcion \u2014 in\u00a0the full article here<\/strong>. Back to Jacob.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udcc8 Power Rankings.\u00a0<\/strong>The Steelers\u2019 position in\u00a0The Athletic<\/em>\u2019s post-draft ranking seemed to anger everyone outside of Pittsburgh.\u00a0Judge for yourself.<\/p>\n \u21a9\ufe0f\u00a0Mike Vrabel returns.\u00a0<\/strong>The Patriots coach is back with the team after missing Day 3 of the draft.\u00a0Chad Graff has details.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udd2c Inside the draft.\u00a0<\/strong>As mentioned earlier, Jourdan explained\u00a0Sean McVay\u2019s sluggish body language\u00a0after the Rams picked quarterback Ty Simpson. (She also explained much more about the draft as well.)<\/p>\n \ud83d\udcd1\u00a02027 mock draft.\u00a0<\/strong>Also mentioned above was Dane\u2019s new mock. I\u2019m\u00a0linking it again here, since you never leave this newsletter before reading every single word. Right?!<\/p>\n \u25b6\ufe0f Yesterday\u2019s most-clicked:\u00a0<\/strong>Dane\u2019s rankings of\u00a0all 32 draft classes.<\/p>\n\n
Late-Round Values of 2026 NFL Draft<\/strong><\/h2>\n
![](\"https:\/\/library.iterable.com\/1557\/5037\/8e4bbba0cf88484e921336ddc17bbcb8-biggest-values-2026-draft-2.jpg\"\/)
<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/library.iterable.com\/1557\/5037\/3cc2de4c4f604ba696f93c43e30d2fae-biggest-overpays-2026-draft.jpg\"\/)
<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/library.iterable.com\/1557\/5037\/145a7b2bdb9a4f8fa5745d76e2f25077-49ers-2026-draft.jpg\"\/)
<\/p>\nWhich NFL teams draft well?<\/strong><\/h2>\n
![](\"https:\/\/library.iterable.com\/1557\/5037\/30b69cb9771a4bd2a563171a8f226aa8-2026-draft-classes-2.jpg\"\/)
<\/p>\nAll In with Jake Ciely<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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Extra Points<\/h2>\n