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By Mike Dolan<\/p>\n
April 29 (Reuters) – What matters in U.S. and global markets today<\/p>\n
By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets<\/p>\n
Today marks the apex of a packed week of events, with the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate decision and earnings reports from four of the U.S. mega-caps. \u200cPerhaps unsurprisingly, there\u2019s been some cooling of red-hot stock markets in advance, not least in the supercharged tech and chip space.<\/p>\n
That tech \u200cretreat was partly triggered by a report that OpenAI had missed some of its internal targets for user growth, calling into question the seemingly boundless optimism around AI demand.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll get into that \u200band more below.<\/p>\n
But first, check out my latest column on why a narrowing transatlantic rate gap may be a mirage.<\/p>\n
And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.<\/p>\n
WHIRLWIND WEDNESDAY<\/p>\n
OpenAI pushed back on the report about missed targets, but its central role in the tech transformation – and its cross-deals with major AI firms – meant the jitters were enough to knock back other stocks, including \u200cOracle and CoreWeave.<\/p>\n
All major U.S. indexes closed down on \u2060Tuesday and futures were steady before the bell on Wednesday, while Asian markets edged up and European shares rose after the open.<\/p>\n
As to the Fed meeting, the stasis in the Iran conflict – which appears to be going nowhere right now – has \u2060caused energy prices to edge higher and sent market inflation expectations over the next year or two to six-month highs. No change in rates is expected today. Powell\u2019s guidance is likely to lean hawkish, though it may pack less of a punch than it did over the past eight years.<\/p>\n
Markets see less than a 20% chance of \u200banother rate \u200bcut this year, and March inflation figures due out on Thursday are expected to \u200brise.<\/p>\n
Meantime, a worrying rise in household inflation expectations in the \u200ceuro zone should lead to a more hawkish tilt from the European Central Bank, which meets tomorrow.<\/p>\n
Elsewhere, energy markets were digesting Tuesday\u2019s surprise decision by the UAE to leave OPEC after more than 50 years. The move is expected to undermine the cartel\u2019s influence over prices in the longer term, and the UAE is likely to ramp up production once the Iran conflict is over.<\/p>\n
But with Gulf oil markets largely frozen thanks to the Iran conflict, there was no immediate crude price reaction, though long-dated futures slipped slightly.<\/p>\n
More relevant right now is the continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent and WTI crude spiking \u200con Wednesday to as high as $115 and $103 per barrel, respectively. That was partly on \u200ba WSJ report that President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of \u200bIran.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Chart of the day<\/p>\n
The UAE was in February OPEC’s fourth\u2011largest producer \u200bafter Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq – accounting for about 12% of total output, according to the International Energy Agency. The UAE \u200chas a capacity of around 4.85 million barrels per day \u200band aims to lift that to 5 \u200bmillion bpd by 2027 – ambitions that sat uneasily with OPEC’s ongoing output curbs.<\/p>\n
Today’s events to watch<\/p>\n
* U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision (2 p.m. EDT) and news conference with Chair Jerome Powell (2:30 p.m. EDT)<\/p>\n
* Bank of Canada interest rate decision (9:45 a.m. EDT)<\/p>\n
* U.S. corporate earnings: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, \u200bQualcomm<\/p>\n
Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox \u200cevery weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us \u200bon LinkedIn and X.<\/p>\n
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the \u200bTrust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.<\/p>\n
(By Mike Dolan)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n