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When SpaceX\u2019s Falcon 9 launched a pair of commercial lunar landers in January 2025, the rocket\u2019s upper stage was supposed to return to Earth. Instead, it got stuck in a highly elliptical orbit, and an astronomer now says it\u2019s going to hit the Moon.<\/p>\n
Bill Gray, an independent orbital analyst and creator of the Project Pluto object-tracking software, used this program to analyze the upper stage\u2019s orbit and predict its future path. His findings indicate that the rocket will crash into the lunar surface at 5,400 miles per hour (8,700 kilometers per hour) at 2:44 a.m. ET on August 5. That\u2019s seven times the speed of sound.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt doesn\u2019t present any danger to anyone, though it does highlight a certain carelessness about how leftover space hardware (space junk) is disposed of,\u201d he wrote in a post on the Project Pluto website.<\/p>\n
On January 15, 2025, a Falcon 9 rocket launched from NASA\u2019s Kennedy Space Center carrying Firefly Aerospace\u2019s Blue Ghost lander and ispace\u2019s Resilience lander. Both landers made it to the Moon, but Resilience crashed into the surface, bringing an early end to its mission. Blue Ghost successfully touched down and captured stunning footage of the Sun setting over the lunar horizon before powering down as planned.<\/p>\n
As for Falcon 9, the upper stage\u2014the part that set the landers on a Moon-bound trajectory\u2014failed to reenter the atmosphere after separating from its payloads. According to Gray, the rocket has had a few close passes by the Moon and Earth but has never come close enough for a possible impact. As of February, astronomers had accumulated 1,053 observations of it, he said.<\/p>\n
These observations revealed that the rocket is circling Earth along a wide, lopsided orbit. It\u2019s taking about 26 days to complete one trip around the planet, and at its closest point it only comes within 137,000 miles (220,000 km) of us. At its farthest, it\u2019s about 310,000 miles (510,000 km) away, which puts it well within cislunar space.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe orbit of the Moon and of this object, roughly speaking, intersect,\u201d Gray said. \u201cUsually, one goes through the intersection point while the other is someplace else. But on August 5, they\u2019ll reach that point at the same time.\u201d<\/p>\n
Based on his calculations, Gray said the upper stage should hit the lunar surface on the Moon\u2019s near side, but just barely. By August, he expects to have accumulated enough data to significantly refine the impact point. It could shift over to the far side, but that remains to be seen.<\/p>\n
\u201cBy the time August 5 comes around, we will have a\u00a0very\u00a0<\/em>exact idea of where and when the impact will occur, probably within a few dozen meters and a fraction of a second,\u201d he said. \u201cWe will be collecting data almost right up to the time of impact.\u201d<\/p>\n Even if it does hit the near side of the Moon, it\u2019s unlikely we\u2019ll be able to see the impact from Earth. In 2009, NASA deliberately rammed a rocket into the lunar surface to see if the impact kicked up ice, but according to Gray, observing telescopes were not able to see the crash.<\/p>\n To him, this Flacon 9 situation underscores the need to address Earth\u2019s growing space-junk problem. Humans are launching more objects into space than ever before, with consequences for astronomy, air quality, and, in rare cases, human safety. Some objects that have managed to reenter Earth\u2019s atmosphere without burning up during descent have crash-landed in populated areas\u2014a few have even fallen onto people\u2019s homes.<\/p>\n Fortunately, this rocket\u2019s crash landing on the Moon will not meaningfully damage the lunar surface, and as Gray said, it\u2019s better to have space junk hit the Moon than the Earth. But even if the upper stage was on track to reenter Earth\u2019s atmosphere, it would just burn up.<\/p>\n It will be fascinating to track this object\u2019s journey over the next several months. Make sure you mark your calendar for the August 5 crash.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n