\n
Oil could rise significantly higher if the United States strikes Iran \u2013 but that probably depends on the extent of the possible attack and Iran\u2019s response.<\/p>\n
For example, crude prices surged 7% and rose above $74 a barrel in early June as tensions escalated between Israel and Iran. But prices actually fell sharply after the United States\u2019 historic attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities later that month because the United States avoided attacking the country\u2019s oil infrastructure \u2013 and Iran\u2019s missile attacks on US bases were intercepted and widely viewed as symbolic.<\/p>\n
Iran has the power to inflict serious damage on the oil market, however, if it wants: The country controls the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz, a pinch point for other oil-producing countries through which 20 million barrels of crude \u2013 about one-fifth of daily global production \u2013 flow. The strait is the only way to ship crude from the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world.<\/p>\n
\u201cIran\u2019s ability to cause chaos in the oil markets is significant if they choose to lash out,\u201d said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s why the oil market is getting jittery.<\/p>\n
\u201cOil traders are effectively placing bets on chaos,\u201d said Nigel Green, CEO of global financial advisory giant deVere Group. \u201cTraders appear to be positioning for a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz shifts from being a shipping route to a strategic pressure point capable of choking global supply.\u201d<\/p>\n
Iran has a surprisingly diversified economy for a sanctioned nation, with oil making up only about 10% to 15% of the country\u2019s overall gross domestic product. But Iran\u2019s government relies heavily on the oil industry for its finances, bringing in half of its revenue from crude exports.<\/p>\n
\u201cOil plays a critical role in the current regime and would continue to do so if the regime changes,\u201d said Pickering.<\/p>\n
Iran also has a leg up on Venezuela, whose authoritarian regime allowed the country\u2019s oil infrastructure to crumble over the past couple decades. By contrast, Iran\u2019s infrastructure is in decent shape.<\/p>\n
\u201cA future government would not be starting from zero,\u201d Green said. \u201cIt would be starting from constrained capacity that can be, in most likely scenarios, unlocked.\u201d<\/p>\n
Of course, that\u2019s if a new government in Iran is friendly to the West, persuading countries around the globe to drop their sanctions, noted Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt all depends on what comes next and what regime emerges post Khamenei,\u201d Croft said.<\/p>\n
In the near term, regime change could send oil prices higher, as the uncertainty of a political transition \u2013 including determining who would control the state-run oil industry \u2013 would add risk to the global crude market. But a new government in Iran could help stabilize and reduce oil prices in the long run, especially if it adds the transparency that the current authoritarian Iranian government has prevented for decades.<\/p>\n
That could put a significant amount of oil into the global market, according to Matt McManus, a former State Department official and a visiting fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics.<\/p>\n
Like Venezuela, however, US oil companies\u2019 interest in moving into Iran could be limited, at least at first.<\/p>\n
Political stability and guarantees of security would need to precede any major American oil company\u2019s involvement in Iran. And with crude prices still quite low, oil companies aren\u2019t exactly rushing into new opportunities with questionable profits.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs for Iran, it has significant resources,\u201d said Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the oil industry\u2019s trade group. \u201cBut any discussion of investment would depend on political stability.\u201d<\/p>\n
For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran. – Fatemeh Bahrami\/Anadolu\/Getty Images The United States is considering whether to strike Iran as turmoil intensifies for the country\u2019s authoritarian regime. The Iranian government is at its weakest point in years, destabilizing yet another OPEC nation less than two weeks after the United States toppled the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":982,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_daextam_enable_autolinks":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-breaking-news"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/691fc546bed9f23dab4af030c8270093.jpeg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=981"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/981\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/982"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diyhaven858.wasmer.app\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}