Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures retreat, oil sinks as Wall Street weighs Iran war signals

US stock futures stalled on Tuesday as investors weighed President Trump’s hint at a fast end to the Iran war, which sent oil prices sliding and raised hopes of limited economic fallout from the conflict.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) fell 0.4% following a turbulent session that saw stocks rebound to close with gains. Contracts on the S&P 500 (ES=F) and the Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) lost around 0.3% each, giving up earlier slight premarket gains.

The market mood has soured after Iran state media reported that an oil tanker has exploded near Abu Dhabi, casting doubt on Trump’s confidence that the Iran conflict could end “very soon.”

Oil prices fell swiftly late Monday after Trump said the US-Israel offensive has effectively cut off Iran’s naval and air capabilities, and that it was “very far” ahead of an expected four-to-five week timeline.

At the same time, though, Israel’s leader Benjamin Netanyahu said its offensive “not done yet” before starting a new wave of strikes on Tehran on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Iran has voiced defiance that bodes ill for an end to Tehran’s effective blockade on tanker traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz — a disruption that threatens “catastrophic consequences” for oil and the global economy, per top oil exporter Aramco’s CEO.

Amid the conflicting signals, oil prices fell about 6%. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) crude traded above $90 a barrel, while Brent (BZ=F) crude topped $93, both retracing some of their overnight losses.

Looking ahead, two key inflation readings are due this week. February’s update on of the Consumer Price Index is due Wednesday, followed by January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures index on Friday. Neither report will account for the recent spike in oil prices, which has shifted the interest-rate calculus for the Federal Reserve.

In upcoming earnings, Oracle (ORCL) is scheduled to report after the market close on Tuesday, while Adobe (ADBE) is on Thursday’s docket.

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Global stock indexes rebound as crude oil prices retreat

Global equity indexes rebounded on Tuesday as crude oil prices fell amid hopes of deescalation in the Middle East after President Trump suggested the war with Iran could end soon.

In Europe, London’s benchmark index (^FTSE) rose 1.2%, Germany’s DAX (DAX) gained 1.8%, the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris added 1.1%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) climbed 1.4%.

Gains picked up in Asia as well. Korea’s KOSPI index (^KS11) jumped 5%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 (^N225) gained 2.8% and the Hang Seng (^HSI) index in China rose 2.1%.

However, US stock futures were more subdued in early morning trading. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F), S&P 500 (ES=F), and the Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) turned red about an hour before the US markets open.
Oil remains in the red as Aramco CEO calls Iran war ‘the biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced’

Oil prices remained in the red through early Tuesday morning after comments from President Trump on Monday evening suggesting that the war could soon come to an end.

Futures on international benchmark Brent (BZ=F) and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) traded at roughly $87.90 per barrel and $89 per barrel, respectively, after the two products opened above $100 Sunday evening and popped to roughly $119, each.

In comments to CBS News, Trump said that he believes the war is “very complete, pretty much” and that the US is “very far” ahead of his estimated timeline. That said, in comments to House Republicans at a press conference Monday evening, the president said the US hasn’t “won enough” and that he “will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe’s oil supply.”

The president’s mixed comments underscored a conundrum for markets: Trump is signaling a near end to conflict, but his rhetoric alone won’t reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz, which remains essentially closed (though data shows very small amounts of crossings may have resumed).

Underscoring the precarity of the situation, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said in comments on the company’s earnings call this morning that the Iran war is “the biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced.” If the Strait is not reopened soon, he said, the consequences will be “catastrophic” for the global economy.
Trump hints at early end to Iran war ease oil-shock concerns

Iran’s effective blockade on oil shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz is under the microscope after President Trump said the US and Israel were making significant progress in their war on Iran and could end the conflict “very soon,” curtailing an oil-price surge.

From Bloomberg:

Read more here.
Premarket trending tickers: Strategy, Oracle, and Vertex

Strategy (MSTR) stock rose 3% before the bell on Tuesday, following a move in bitcoin (BTC-USD). The world’s largest cryptocurrency jumped 4% today on news that the conflict between US-Israeli forces and Iran had eased. Strategy is one of the largest corporate holders of bitcoin.

Oracle (ORCL) stock rose 2% during premarket hours on Tuesday. The company will release its fourth quarter earnings after the bell today amid news that it has stopped plans to expand an AI data center with OpenAI (OPAI.PVT), and will also cut thousands of jobs.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) stock rose 4% before the bell today after announcing that one its drugs, which treats a rare kidney disease, has met its key objective in a late-stage trial.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise posts Q2 revenue beat on growing AI demand

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) beat Wall Street’s second quarter revenue estimates when it reported earnings on Monday afternoon, citing the AI infrastructure boom driving demand for the company’s servers.

The tech pioneer also raised its fiscal ‌2026 adjusted earnings per share forecast to $2.30-$2.50, higher than the expected $2.25-$2.45.

“Demand for our products and solutions was strong, ⁠with orders increasing double digits year over year across all segments,” CEO Antonio Neri said.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock rose around 3% in premarket trading on Tuesday.

Reuters reports:

Read more here.
Of note from Saudi Aramco earnings call

Two call-outs from Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) earnings out this morning.

One is from the Jefferies research team, noting this from the top oil exporter’s management: “All areas safe & operating normally, with Ras Tanura starting up following precautionary shutdown after drone interception.”

And this one from CEO Amin Nasser caught my attention on the earnings call. He was asked about how quickly the company could ramp up oil shipments once the Strait of Hormuz gets back to some form of normal:

“We can ramp up in days and not weeks, for sure.”
Good oil chart from Goldman

A new chart this morning from Goldman Sachs caught my attention with oil prices (CL=F, BZ=F) continuing to slide. It appears there is some oil making it through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil drops after historic spike as Trump points to end of Iran war

Bloomberg reports:

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Gold holds as Trump comments on the end of US-Israeli war against Iran settles markets

Bloomberg reports:

Read more here.