The Mandalorian and Grogu is the first Star Wars movie to hit the big screen in almost seven years. Excitement and anticipation should be through the roof. However, early estimates of its opening weekend don’t quite show that, from a certain point of view.
With just a few weeks until its May 22 release, Deadline reports The Mandalorian and Grogu is currently tracking for an $80 million-plus opening over the four-day Memorial Day weekend. In terms of modern Star Wars movies, that would put it slightly below (or about equal to) 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened to $84 million on its first weekend. And, of course, it’s a far cry from almost all of the other recent Star Wars films, which opened to $248 million, $155 million, $220 million, and $177 million from 2015 to 2019, respectively.
Eighty million plus would, however, put The Mandalorian and Grogu ahead of Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace and Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones, which opened to about $65 and $80 million, respectively. But, of course, those films were released decades ago, and those numbers aren’t adjusted for inflation. (Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith opened to over $108 million, by the way.) And it’s certainly much better than 2008’s animated film, Star Wars: The Clone Wars, which opened to just $14 million.
There are obviously a lot of factors in play here, though. The first is the main marketing for The Mandalorian and Grogu is only just beginning. Soon, there will be interviews, clips, viral videos, and so much more. Plus, May 4 is approaching, which will feature all manner of Star Wars excitement across every medium, as well as an in-theater event promoting the film. All of that should get more people interested and into theaters for that opening weekend. Also, most people have not seen the movie yet, so if early reviews and word of mouth are strong, that could really help things along. (Or, potentially, the opposite.)
Also, while we are measuring the film against other big-screen Star Wars releases, it’s really not the fairest comparison. The Mandalorian and Grogu is based on a Disney+ TV show first and foremost, so it doesn’t quite carry with it the same comps in terms of box office. In fact, Deadline puts it closer to films like 2008’s High School Musical 3: Senior Year, which was an adaptation of a TV property (it opened to $42 million); J.J. Abrams’ 2009 Star Trek, which was a similar franchise return after a long hiatus (that opened to about $75 million); and the Fast and Furious spinoff, Hobbs and Shaw, which opened to about $60 million. All of those are big-time franchise-adjacent but not quite the focus of that big franchise.
Or, maybe that’s just a Hollywood trade trying to make an $80+ million dollar Star Wars opening seem good.
Often these first estimates end up on the low side, though, so we’d imagine those earlier rumors of around $100 million will probably be closer to true once the film is in theaters. But it’ll be fascinating to see how closely, or if, Star Wars‘ return to the big screen can compete with its predecessors. You also have to wonder if Disney and Lucasfilm are going to be happy with an opening like this or if they were expecting something much larger. We’ll find out in a few short weeks.
Want more io9 news? Check out when to expect the latest Marvel, Star Wars, and Star Trek releases, what’s next for the DC Universe on film and TV, and everything you need to know about the future of Doctor Who.
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