There is no drama around which player will be taken first in the 2026 NFL Draft. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is a virtual lock to be taken by the Las Vegas Raiders with the first pick in the draft. After that, it gets more interesting.
Mendoza has -10000 odds to be taken at No. 1. Look, stranger things have happened, but this is as close to a sure thing as it gets.
An oddsmaker at DraftKings told The Athletic that he’s the biggest favorite they have ever had stretch this far ahead of the draft. There have been other quarterbacks priced similarly, but not until closer to draft day. Mendoza has been at these odds for nearly the past month.
That’s why the draft starts for real at No. 2, where the narrative is that the New York Jets are debating between two pass rushers: Ohio State’s Arvell Reese and Texas Tech’s David Bailey. Last week, Bailey was favored over Reese. However, The Athletic’s Jets reporter Zack Rosenblatt and NFL Draft expert Dane Brugler were both picking Reese.
Lo and behold, this week, Reese has jumped ahead in the odds. Reese is -190 to be the second pick on DraftKings. Bailey is at +140. That puts it at a bit better than 60-40 than Reese goes at No. 2 ahead of Bailey.
But, of course, no one outside the organization is sure what the Jets are going to do.
Another big question mark for Thursday is the third pick, which belongs to the Arizona Cardinals. This might actually be the biggest buzz of this draft: Where will Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love land?
Love shot up the odds board for No. 3 pick over the weekend and nearly reached even with Bailey in the odds. As of Tuesday, Bailey is still the favorite, but at plus-odds (+120). Love is next at +250. Reese is actually behind Love at +290.
While the debate at No. 2 is all about Reese and Bailey, it’s not a lock that the one that doesn’t get picked at No. 2 will go at No. 3. While a trade could always change things, if the Arizona Cardinals stay at No. 3, some buzz is saying they might pull the first surprise of draft day and go with the running back.
Love is a minus-odds favorite (-135) to be taken at No. 4, a pick held by the Tennessee Titans. The Titans would have a draft-built core on offense after taking quarterback Cam Ward with the first pick in last year’s draft.
Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles is favored to be the fifth pick, which the New York Giants currently have. Styles is +150 to be the fifth pick.
So that’s the buzz based on the odds. What do our experts say?
In the latest mock draft from Nick Baumgardner, we’ve got Reese at No. 2 to the Jets, Bailey at No. 3 to the Cardinals, Styles sneaking in ahead of Love at No. 4 and the Giants taking Love at No. 5.
In a consensus mock draft based on input from coaches, executives and scouts, it goes Mendoza, Reese, Bailey, Love and then Ohio State safety Caleb Downs going to the Giants at No. 5. Yes, Ohio State’s defense has three players expected to be drafted in the top 10 (and Buckeye wide receiver Carnell Tate Jr. could as well).
There are so many permutations and all it would take is one trade or unexpected pick to mix everything up. That’s the fun of the NFL Draft. This year, you can start paying attention after the first pick.
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