Big Tech earnings put spotlight on AI and memory shortage as Trump tariff threats ease for now

The first Big Tech earnings of the new year kick off this week, with Intel (INTC) set to report its results after the bell on Thursday.

AI will undoubtedly lead the conversation. As in prior quarters, questions remain about how companies are monetizing their vast investments in the red-hot technology, and about whether hyperscalers like Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) and social media giant Meta (META) will continue to increase spending.

Investors will be interested in PC chip sales from AMD (AMD) and Intel, which could get a boost thanks to Microsoft’s decision to end support for Windows 10. But the ongoing global memory shortage could put a damper on their sales outlooks.

Apple’s earnings will be in the spotlight, as investors anticipate solid growth on the back of strong iPhone sales in the fourth quarter.

Then there’s Nvidia (NVDA). The company’s future in China remains a major question mark as the chipmaker attempts to reestablish its business in one of the world’s most important AI markets.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JANUARY 04: AMD Chair and CEO Dr. Lisa Su delivers a keynote address at CES 2023 at The Venetian Las Vegas on January 04, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. CES, the world's largest annual consumer technology trade show, runs from January 5-8 and features about 3,100 exhibitors showing off their latest products and services to more than 100,000 attendees. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images) — AMD Chair and CEO Dr. Lisa Su at CES 2023 in Las Vegas. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images) · David Becker via Getty Images

President Trump has now dropped his threat of a new round of steep tariffs on European countries over his desire to acquire Greenland. But with the issue not settled, the risk of EU-US trade war persists, meaning even positive earnings reports might not be enough to buoy stocks.

With so many trends colliding, expect it to be a nonstop barrage of news. I hope you’re ready.

Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are some of the biggest AI spenders around. And their results will have ripple effects on AI companies across the market.

All four of the companies plan to keep pouring cash into building data centers. During Amazon’s third quarter earnings call, CFO Brian Olsavsky said that the company planned to spend $125 billion in 2025 and even more in 2026.

Google CFO Anat Ashkenazi raised the company’s 2025 capital expenditures in Q3 to between $91 billion and $93 billion, up from a previously anticipated $85 billion, and added that the amount would increase significantly in 2026.

Meta CFO Susan Li provided a similar update to the Facebook parent’s 2025 capital expenditures, increasing her projection on the low end from between $66 billion and $72 billion to between $70 billion and $72 billion.

She also added that she anticipates “total expenses will grow at a significantly faster percentage rate in 2026 than 2025, with growth driven primarily by infrastructure costs, including incremental cloud expenses and depreciation.”

At Davos on Wednesday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told the World Economic Forum audience that the AI explosion has jump-started the “largest infrastructure buildout in history.” And despite the hundreds of billions of dollars companies have already invested in the technology, there’s still much more spending to do. “There are trillions of dollars of infrastructure that needs to be built out,” Huang said.

Employee compensation would be the second-biggest driver. Meta was on a hiring spree for several months in 2025, snagging AI experts from rival firms and offering up massive pay packages.

During Microsoft’s October earnings call, CFO Amy Hood also pointed to higher capital expenditures in 2026, adding that the company would spend more than the $88.2 billion it spent in 2025. In Q1 alone, Microsoft spent a record $34.9 billion as part of its AI build-out.

So far, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft say that demand for AI is so intense that they can’t keep up and continue to be capacity-constrained, which means they’ll have to continue to build more data centers to match the need or miss out on potential revenue.

And that’s helping boost their bottom lines. According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, Amazon’s AWS revenue is expected to increase 21%. Microsoft’s commercial cloud business revenue should jump 25%, while Google’s cloud business is anticipated to climb 35%. Meta’s overall revenue, meanwhile, should climb 30%.

A miss on those numbers, however, could send shockwaves through the AI industry.

Intel and AMD will also be on Wall Street’s radar as they look to see whether consumers and enterprise customers are buying up new laptops and desktops on the back of Microsoft’s decision to end Windows 10 support.

According to Gartner, worldwide PC shipments grew 9.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, but the memory shortage kicked off by the AI data center explosion could impact PC prices in the coming months, which could hit sales.

Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang speaks during the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

Apple is going into earnings season with expectations for solid iPhone sales and overall revenue. During the company’s Q4 earnings call, CEO Tim Cook said he anticipates Q1 will be the best ever for the company and the best ever for iPhone revenue.

Wall Street will also be keeping its eye on sales out of China, which declined in Q4. Cook said during his Q4 earnings call remarks that he expects the region to return to growth and that store traffic in the market was up significantly in Q1.

Nvidia and AMD will be among the most-watched earnings reports this quarter, with investors focusing on sales of the company’s current and next-generation AI GPUs. Both companies showed off their newest AI chips during CES this month, with Nvidia announcing the launch of its Vera Rubin platform and AMD touting its Helios rack-scale system.

Nvidia’s results are the biggest bellwether for the AI trade, but expectations for the company’s sales are so high that even beating Wall Street’s projections isn’t enough. Nvidia is also off the all-time highs it experienced in October when its market cap crossed the $5 trillion mark.

AMD is also off its October highs.

Both companies are still waiting to see if they can ship their chips to China. The Trump administration has greenlit the move, if companies pay a 25% fee on the sale of the processors, but according to Reuters, the Chinese government is telling companies not to purchase the GPUs unless they’re using them for specific purposes, such as university research.

Regardless, the entire AI trade will rest heavily on the chip companies’ results. We’ll be watching.