Is CHRD a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Chord Energy Corporation on Old Rope Research’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CHRD. Chord Energy Corporation’s share was trading at $127.06 as of April 20th. CHRD’s trailing P/E was 167.00 according to Yahoo Finance.
Chord Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. CHRD presents a compelling and asymmetric investment case driven by its operational leverage and geopolitical dynamics in the oil market. The company operates primarily in the Williston Basin, a historically underappreciated region with gassier rock and inferior margin capture compared with the Permian, further hampered by the loss of the Dakota Access Pipeline.
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At current oil prices of $65/bbl, Chord’s reserves imply a PV-10 of roughly $9 billion, tightly aligned with its $8.5 billion enterprise value. However, only 20% of production is hedged, leaving the company highly exposed to spot price movements. In a scenario where Brent and WTI average $100/bbl, Chord’s operating leverage is substantial: margins expand nonlinearly, turning previously marginal PUD wells and tail-end production into highly profitable assets, potentially lifting PV-10 to ~$17 billion.
This dynamic is reinforced by Chord’s consolidation of the Bakken via the Whiting merger and technological improvements like four-mile laterals, which materially lower lifting costs and increase recoverable volumes. Traditional concerns around North Dakota’s distance from markets and pipeline bottlenecks remain, but in a protracted Middle East quagmire, incremental barrels from the Bakken become marginal supply, enhancing the company’s pricing power.
Chord effectively becomes a high-delta call option on geopolitical tension, where prolonged elevated oil prices could unlock exceptional value. Conversely, if geopolitical disruption proves transient, the company’s economics revert to a high-cost, moderate-margin wildcatter profile. Overall, CHRD offers a scenario-driven asymmetric upside, with operational efficiency and geopolitical tailwinds positioning it for potential substantial revaluation relative to current market pricing.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) by Magnus Ofstad in May 2025, which highlighted its low-cost Permian assets, diversified operations, and potential upside from carbon capture initiatives. OXY’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 26.57% since our coverage. Old Rope Research shares a similar view but emphasizes Chord Energy (CHRD)’s asymmetric upside from operational leverage and exposure to elevated oil prices.
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