“I had the feeling that with this result, we missed an opportunity,” Pep Guardiola said after a breathless game with Liverpool in 2022. “A feeling we leave them alive.”
Manchester City and Liverpool knew that a victory in the April clash at the Etihad Stadium would put their Premier League title fate in their own hands, but a thrilling 2-2 draw kept the standings as they were, with City one point ahead.
Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp were left feeling that their teams would have to win all of their remaining seven matches from that point onwards, and given the late chances that City missed in the game — Riyad Mahrez dinked one over the bar in the final moments — their manager rued a missed opportunity to earn some leeway.
In Guardiola’s mind, they had missed the chance to kill Liverpool off.
This season’s title race is not quite so close, not quite so high-quality and not quite so advanced, but that sentiment springs to mind after the last few matches.
Before City drew at Sunderland on New Year’s Day, they were five points off the top. After a run that includes three consecutive draws and a deserved defeat in the Manchester derby, they are now four points off.
Erling Haaland during the 2-0 defeat against Manchester United this month (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
They won their first league game of 2026 on Saturday, beating Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0. They had not won since seeing off Nottingham Forest two days after Christmas, and they have taken just six points from a possible 15.
Despite all that, they have narrowed the gap on Arsenal.
Over that same period, Arsenal have taken just five points from 12, a situation that was developing under the radar, partly because of their strong performances in other competitions and because of City’s own major concerns, but has now been thrust into the spotlight after their dramatic defeat against Manchester United on Sunday.
They only have themselves to blame because after City drew disappointingly with Brighton & Hove Albion on January 7, their third successive draw, Arsenal then played out a stalemate with Liverpool. Last weekend, after City looked shocking in their derby defeat, Arsenal again drew just a few hours later, against Forest.
It did not feel too significant at the time, and Guardiola and his players would probably not have taken too much heart from those results, given their own struggles, but there must now be a feeling that City have been left alive.
Guardiola’s concerns about being hunted down in 2022 came to nothing: Liverpool were kept alive but could not make it count. Both teams went on to drop more points than they would have expected, but City were still good enough, and Liverpool not quite good enough, to see the title stay at the Etihad again.
That could well be the case this time, too, with Arsenal probably still favourites to finish top despite their missed opportunities.
There will no doubt be talk of City ‘going on a run’, as they so often have done under Guardiola, although those remarkable winning streaks were achieved by a very different team: only Rodri and Bernardo Silva started Saturday’s match and the equivalent Gameweek 23 fixture two years ago (a 3-1 victory at Brentford). Only four players started the same game at this stage last year (a 3-1 win against Chelsea).
City are clearly a work in progress, and that fact has always played into Arsenal’s hands. Mikel Arteta’s side are far more settled, far more sure of themselves and, until recently, far more consistent.
While City have had some kinks to iron out even in their good spells, Arsenal have seemed to sail along calmly, looking solid at the back and a constant threat from set pieces.
Manchester City celebrate their title win in 2024 (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
In any case, City’s next two league games are hardly gimmes. On Sunday, they travel to Tottenham Hotspur, who seem to get the better of Guardiola’s men no matter how much they are struggling themselves — during a barren run under Ange Postecoglou last season, they managed to win just once in eight games, but that was a 4-0 thrashing at the Etihad. They looked brilliant there in August, too, at a time when they seemed to be taking off under Thomas Frank.
If Spurs were to sack Frank this week due to their struggles since then, and benefit from a new manager bounce, it would only add to the feeling that there is rarely much to shout about from a trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, especially given the home side won the first five meetings at the new ground. City have won the last two, though, including what was essentially a title clincher in 2024, so that provides some hope.
Whatever happens in north London, City’s next league game is a trip to Liverpool, where their record is considerably bleaker, with just one win at Anfield since 2003 — and that was behind closed doors during the Covid-19 season.
Arsenal’s next two games are Leeds United away and Sunderland at home, which are not quite as tough as City’s assignments but are still potential banana skins, especially if the leaders’ recent results indicate the kind of wobble that has caused them to squander commanding title positions in the past three seasons.
That talking point will no doubt dominate the agenda for the next week: is it happening again? City overhauled Arsenal twice, in 2023 and 2024, and Liverpool did it last year, while fans of both teams know all too well the feeling of City roaring back from nowhere to lift the trophy when all is said and done.
Liverpool tasted it in 2022 but also 2019 — City had lost 2-1 at Newcastle United at the end of January on a night when they could have cut Liverpool’s lead at the top to one point. The next evening, Klopp’s men surprisingly drew 1-1 with Leicester City.
“Three or four days ago, we were already done, the champions were Liverpool,” Guardiola told reporters at the time. “And now we are favourites.
“Maybe in three days we will be leading — or we could be six points behind.”
The circumstances are similar now, even if City themselves, after completely overhauling their squad over the past 12 months, are markedly different.
But that will not stop people believing — possibly even those in the City and Arsenal dressing rooms — that they can do it again.
It remains to be seen if they have what it takes when push comes to shove, but Arsenal should have ensured that they were out of the equation already. Manchester City are still alive here.
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