When will gas prices go back down? Experts weigh in on where things are headed.

Relief at the gas pump could be on the way as falling oil prices and shifting global supply trends push fuel costs lower.

On Friday, oil futures tumbled after Iran’s foreign minister posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz was now “completely open” to commercial shipping traffic during the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, a major development that could help ease supply fears.

Markets are focused on any signs of further talks between the U.S. and Iran.

Global energy prices have remained elevated over the past month, and Americans continue to feel the pain of skyrocketing gas prices amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

The latest CPI data showed a 21.2% month-over-month increase in gasoline prices in March — the largest monthly increase since the CPI was first published in 1967. The national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline is above $4, and the average cost of diesel continues to creep up toward $6 per gallon.

Recently, news of the temporary, two-week ceasefire positively impacted global markets and oil prices, but drivers have yet to feel any meaningful relief.

Read more: Gas tops $4 and diesel is over $5. How an extended war with Iran could push prices higher.

Changes in crude-oil prices have the power to impact gas prices fairly quickly; however, the comedown from a gasoline price spike isn’t always immediate.

While oil prices are certainly a key indicator of how gas prices may increase or decrease, it is just one of many factors that can play a role in how much you pay at the pump. Other factors, such as refining costs, disruptions in gasoline distribution, and retailers’ price markups, can slow the rate at which gas prices return to normal after a spike.

“There is a saying that pump prices rise like a rocket and fall like a feather, and that holds,” said David Doherty, head of natural resources research at BloombergNEF. “It takes about three weeks for crude price rises to be fully felt in the price of gasoline prices, and it can take as much time for them to decline as refiners face an uncertain landscape when it comes to the price of crude, their main ingredient.”

Doherty says prices will spike very quickly if the ceasefire breaks down.

“Markets are already very apprehensive about the developments in the Gulf, and at $95-$100 per barrel, they are pricing in some skepticism,” Doherty said. “If the world were not disrupted by this, we would expect the fair value of Brent oil to be closer to $65 per barrel.”

A resolution to the war in the Middle East and a permanent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would be needed to begin regulating volatility in the oil market, experts say.

In a key development on Thursday, President Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel as the U.S. works toward an end to war in the Middle East.

“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire,” Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X on Friday.

Ships must pass through a “coordinated route as already announced” by Iran’s authorities, Araghchi said.

As oil tumbled 10%, Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, posted on X that gas prices could start to come down over the next few weeks.

“This could accelerate sending fuel prices lower starting this weekend with the national average likely falling below $4/gal to perhaps $3.65-$3.85 with diesel falling to $4.85-$5.15/gal in 3-4 weeks and could continue for a couple weeks barring any re-escalation,” De Haan wrote.

“I still tend to believe that things could normalize 3 to 6 months from now. Our previous 2026 fuel outlook called for gas prices falling below the $3 mark later this year,” De Haan said in an earlier interview with Yahoo Finance. He said that generally speaking, it only takes a couple of days for oil price changes to be passed through to the retail level.

However, as volatility in the oil market continues, one expert says it may be a while before gas prices settle.

“Gas prices are still running on adrenaline, not fundamentals. The more excitement, the higher the spike, with crude driving roughly half the move,” said Maksim Sonin, an energy executive who works with Stanford University’s Center for Fuels of the Future. “No one is rushing to be the cheapest in town. Margins tend to expand across the chain while the window is open. Some relief may come, but it will likely be location-specific, with weeks stretching into months, to settle. And longer still if another wave of adrenaline is around the corner.”

Read more: Best credit cards for gas

Here at home, steps are being taken at the federal level to ease the financial burden of higher gas prices on everyday Americans.

This includes the government’s emergency EPA waivers, which allow nationwide sales of E15, gasoline blended with 15% ethanol, and the removal of all federal impediments to selling E10, gasoline blended with 10% ethanol, across the country. The EPA says this move will prevent disruption in America’s fuel supply by keeping E15 on the market and giving Americans more fuel options.

Additionally, in March, the Trump administration ordered the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) alongside the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency, who unanimously agreed to release a total of 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves to address the global disruption.

Read more: What’s the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and can it help lower gas prices?

At the state level, some states are implementing fuel tax holidays to help residents trim their costs.

There are several ways consumers can take matters into their own hands to save money on fuel.

Join fuel rewards programs: If you frequent a particular gas station, see if it offers a fuel rewards program you can join to start accruing rewards or earn a few cents off each gallon.
Comparison shop: Stopping at your nearest gas station may prove to be the most convenient option for gas, but it may not be the most cost-effective. Before you pump gas, shop around and compare stations to ensure you’re getting the best possible price.
Get a credit card with gas rewards: If you’re in the market for a new credit card, consider opting for one that offers cash back or points every time you fill up to help minimize the toll of elevated gas prices on your budget.

Read more: How a gas card can help you navigate high prices at the pump