I want to start by acknowledging the obvious: It’s too early to judge this draft class. At least for me.
In 2022, Dane’s top classes turned out elite. In 2023, the Lions should’ve been higher and Colts lower, but otherwise: spot on. Similar successes in 2024 and 2025.
So I’m doing something a bit different here. I don’t have the expertise of Dane, so I’m classifying later-round picks based on where experts like him thought they should’ve been drafted, according to the pre-draft consensus top 300.
- If a player was picked before experts thought, that’s a reach, because the team dipped deeper than expected to pick them.
- If a player was drafted after their consensus ranking, that’s a value, because the team got a prospect below anticipated cost.
Think of it like buying a hot dog and soda. At Costco, it’s $1.50 (with a free refill!). Steal. That same combo at an MLB game could be $15 (try asking for a free refill!). Fair value is probably about $5.
Late-Round Values of 2026 NFL Draft
These are the Costco combos of the 2026 class, the prospects nabbed for less than their projected value:
What happened here? Either the consensus was wrong, the public is unaware of something important (like medicals) or teams missed on talented prospects.
It’s often that last part. The consensus has been right about as often as NFL teams have. A quick look back at 2025’s biggest steals confirms this. Nick Emmanwori slipped 13 spots into the second round, then won a Super Bowl and nearly won Defensive Rookie of the Year. That’s just one example.
So there’s still hope for prospects like these, who plummeted down draft boards:
Colts WR Deion Burks. Indy executives see Oklahoma’s undersized Burks (5-10, 180 pounds and actually one of the combine’s two strongest receivers) as a weapon: “You want to create explosive plays, get the ball in this guy’s hands any way you can,” said coach Shane Steichen. “He’s a (4.3 speed) guy that can fly.”
Lions CB Keith Abney II. One of the few players on this list whom Dane had above the consensus. His No. 9 corner is a small but physical defender from Arizona State. Detroit’s best value pick could be a starter before long.
As for the MLB-ballpark equivalents? These are the 2026 draftees who probably could’ve been cheaper, meaning they were drafted earlier than their rankings in the consensus (unranked players excluded):
The most intriguing rookie there is Caleb Douglas. The Texas Tech product was the earliest of three draftees joining the Dolphins’ depleted receiver room, meaning he could be a Week 1 starter.
Dane says his No. 31 receiver plays like “a diet version of Dontayvion Wicks.” Not what you want to hear about your potential WR1, but Wicks did have some big games in Green Bay. The upside is here for Miami.
The 49ers are the only team to appear twice on that list, and have two of its three biggest reaches. It gets worse. Seven of San Francisco’s eight rookies were drafted earlier than expected. Fifth-rounder Jaden Dugger of Louisiana wasn’t even among the top 300 prospects.
It’s clear that John Lynch, Kyle Shanahan and co. fully trust their judgement. Should they?
Probably not when it comes to Indiana running back Kaelon Black, drafted 120 spots ahead of consensus. As noted by one of our 49ers beat writers, Matt Barrows, “They have a conspicuously sketchy history when it comes to mid-round running backs.”
Then again, price isn’t everything. A hot dog and soda is much better at a sunny baseball game than in the Costco food court, and some teams are better at identifying which players are worth reaching for. Let’s talk about that next.
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Which NFL teams draft well?
We might be skeptical of the 49ers’ class, but we should rarely doubt Lions general manager Brad Holmes.
Last year, Nick Baumgardner checked five years of data to determine which teams draft better than others. Some deserve the benefit of the doubt. Others don’t.
Nick’s 2020s draft-aptitude rankings (method explained here):
Yes, the uber-confident 49ers have been pretty average drafters. They’ve seemed insistent on reaching for their guys, so we’re right to be skeptical. Trey Lance, anyone?! (This makes it even more impressive that Shanahan usually wins double-digit games anyway, I guess.)
Elsewhere in 2026, outside of one reach by both Detroit and Baltimore, none of the top four drafters picked a player more than 35 spots before the consensus, meaning they almost always stayed within a round of collective wisdom. The average pick by the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Ravens was actually cheaper than the consensus-anticipated cost. Costco shoppers know that strategy works.
Over to Jake Ciely for two rookies your fantasy team could use.
All In with Jake Ciely
A few days ago, I shared the draft’s winners and losers from a fantasy perspective. This isn’t a complete list, but more about each player’s boost (or drop-off) when compared to pre-draft hopes.
In that sense, Jeremiyah Love isn’t an NFL Draft “winner.” We knew he’d be a top pick, and you can argue there was a better landing spot than Arizona.
My two big winners for 2026:
- Seahawks RB Jadarian Price. A Raheem Mostert type, Love’s former backup brings speed and offensive fit to the Seahawks, with Zach Charbonnet a question to play at all. Expect Price to see 250-plus touches, leading the Seahawks and making him a locked-in RB2 right away.
- Eagles WR Makai Lemon. I’ll argue for him as the top rookie wideout in redraft and dynasty, as A.J. Brown has his bag packed, waiting for June 1. USC’s Lemon steps into a 1A/1B role with DeVonta Smith — and could be the 1A. Give me Lemon as the third pick in dynasty rookie drafts and a top-25 WR in redraft leagues, with upside for more.
Plenty more winners and losers — including new Browns receiver KC Concepcion — in the full article here. Back to Jacob.
Extra Points
📈 Power Rankings. The Steelers’ position in The Athletic’s post-draft ranking seemed to anger everyone outside of Pittsburgh. Judge for yourself.
↩️ Mike Vrabel returns. The Patriots coach is back with the team after missing Day 3 of the draft. Chad Graff has details.
🔬 Inside the draft. As mentioned earlier, Jourdan explained Sean McVay’s sluggish body language after the Rams picked quarterback Ty Simpson. (She also explained much more about the draft as well.)
📑 2027 mock draft. Also mentioned above was Dane’s new mock. I’m linking it again here, since you never leave this newsletter before reading every single word. Right?!
▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: Dane’s rankings of all 32 draft classes.
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