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Study: Higher vaccine uptake could cut pediatric flu deaths in half

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Key takeaways:

  • Researchers modeled the number of pediatric health care visits, hospitalizations and deaths with varying immunization rates.
  • Compared with the 50% coverage, 70% coverage could halve pediatric influenza deaths.

BOSTON — Increasing influenza vaccination coverage to 70% could prevent more than 30,000 pediatric hospitalizations and 123 pediatric deaths, according to data presented at the Pediatric Academic Societies annual meeting.

The Healthy People 2030 initiative, launched by HHS in 2020, set a goal of achieving 70% coverage among all people aged 6 months and older.



IDC0426Nguyen_PAS_FINAL

Data derived from Nguyen VH, et al. Modeling the impact of pediatric influenza vaccination rates on U.S. health care resource utilization. Presented at: Pediatric Academic Societies annual meeting; April 24-27, 2026; Boston.

However, CDC data reveal that pediatric vaccination rates have been steadily falling since the COVID-19 pandemic. Coverage among children aged 6 months through 17 years was 63.7% by the end of the 2019-2020 influenza season. In contrast, coverage at the end of the 2024-2025 season was 50.2%.

“Lower vaccination uptake among children is associated with increased health care visits and hospitalizations and can accelerate influenza transmission across age groups, placing additional strain on health care resources,” Joaquin F. Mould-Quevedo, PhD, a global health researcher at CSL Seqirus, said in a press release. “This trend is particularly concerning following the 2024-2025 U.S. influenza season, which was marked by 293 reported pediatric deaths — the highest number since reporting began.”

Van H. Nguyen, MPH, a pharmaceutical consultant and one of the presenting authors, explained to PAS attendees how he and Mould-Quevedo set up their study to show how pediatric immunization rates would affect health care utilization. They built a model to estimate pediatric health care utilization during a high-incidence season (2017-2018) and a low-incidence season (2011-2012). They projected the number of pediatric outpatient visits, hospitalizations and deaths with vaccination rates ranging from 50% to 70%. They used a vaccine effectiveness rate of 58%, which was based on the average effectiveness from the last 10 years of CDC data.

With the current influenza vaccine coverage of 50%, the researchers estimated that more than 4.4 million children would need outpatient care, 59,000 would be hospitalized and 234 would die during a high-incidence season. During a low-incidence season, they projected 1.5 million pediatric outpatient visits, 18,000 hospital admissions and 70 deaths. They also estimated that children would use up to 14,000 acute hospital beds and 2,000 ICU beds daily during a high-incidence season.

If influenza vaccine uptake increased to 70% for a season, Mould-Quevedo and Nguyen calculated that health care utilization could be cut in half. During a high-incidence season, 70% coverage would prevent 2.2 million outpatient visits, 30,494 hospitalizations and 123 deaths. In a low-incidence season, higher vaccine uptake could have even stronger impacts, preventing nearly 1.4 million outpatient visits, 15,783 hospitalizations and 63 deaths.

“If we are able to achieve the Healthy People objective with a 70% immunization rate, that will substantially reduce the burden of outpatient visits and ease the pressure on the health care infrastructure,” Nguyen said.

For more information:

Joaquin F. Mould-Quevedo, PhD, is senior director of global health economics and value strategy at CSL Seqirus. He can be reached at pediatrics@healio.com.

Van H. Nguyen, MPH, is CEO of VHN Consulting in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. He can be reached at pediatrics@healio.com.

Perspective

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Brenda I. Anosike, MD, MPH

The findings from Nguyen and colleagues are sobering, and the timing could not be more urgent. Using a dynamic, age-stratified transmission model across two representative U.S. influenza seasons, the authors demonstrate that achieving the Healthy People 2030 target of 70% pediatric influenza immunization could prevent more than 2.2 million visits, 30,000 hospitalizations and 123 deaths in a single high-incidence season. The modeling makes it clear that every percentage point matters: At the current 50% pediatric coverage rate in the U.S., a severe season generates 4.4 million outpatient visits, 59,000 hospitalizations and 234 deaths, with peak daily occupancy reaching 14,000 acute and 2,000 ICU beds, further straining an overburdened health care system. With effective vaccines available, the problem is one of delivery, not biology.Perhaps most striking is how modest the target actually is. Seventy percent is not an aspirational ceiling; it is a benchmark we have yet to consistently reach. The 2024-2025 season was the most severe in over 15 years, and the vast majority of pediatric influenza-related deaths occurred in incompletely vaccinated children. The study reframes the conversation: Rather than telling hesitant parents that vaccination protects their child, we can now describe what it does for the entire system their child depends on. Vaccine hesitancy and access barriers, not indifference, drive much of the gap. Families who receive counseling and reminders vaccinate at higher rates.For pediatricians, the implication is clear: Every encounter is an opportunity. Standing orders, reminders and even same-day vaccination protocols are evidence-based tools that work. What is needed now is more granular research that disaggregates national projections by geography, race and ethnicity, and rurality, aligns projected strain with local capacity, and better quantifies indirect protection for vulnerable populations, even as evolving vaccine guidance risks undermining confidence when we need it most.

Brenda I. Anosike, MD, MPH

  • Children’s Hospital at Montefiore Einstein



Disclosures: Anosike reports no relevant financial disclosures.

Sources/Disclosures

Source:

Nguyen VH, et al. Modeling the impact of pediatric influenza vaccination rates on U.S. health care resource utilization. Presented at: Pediatric Academic Societies annual meeting; April 24-27, 2026; Boston.

References:


Disclosures:
Mould-Quevedo reports being employed by CSL Seqirus. Nguyen reports consulting for CSL Seqirus.

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